Do I ship it?

GamesShooterShooter + Thriller

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Thriller Shooter?

Shooter + Thriller

Of 110 developers who shipped a Thriller Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 160 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $220k, ×354 the market median. Revenue is up 180% on the market; 160 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 180% on the market, 160 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Thriller
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 110
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $899 → $1.9k → $4.5k → $779 → $1.4k → $9.2k (still earning) → $1.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Thriller: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 110
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $15,814)
Top 5% $222k (exactly $222,295)
Developers, 2 yr 110
Released games 248
Announced 160
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 180% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Thriller
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, FPS
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 13,562 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $220k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 61 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 160 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Last of Us™ Part I older $59.99 65,259 85% 2.0M $117M (exactly $117,446,622) Naughty Dog LLC, Iron Galaxy Studios
Alan Wake older $14.99 45,662 89% 1.4M $21M (exactly $20,534,201) Remedy Entertainment
Choo-Choo Charles older $19.99 16,292 91% 489k $9.8M (exactly $9,770,312) Two Star Games
Dead Space™ 3 older $19.99 12,238 72% 367k $7.3M (exactly $7,339,129) Visceral Games
The Killing Antidote · EA $29.99 7,512 88% 225k $6.8M (exactly $6,758,546) MetalStar Studio
F.E.A.R. older $9.99 14,017 93% 421k $4.2M (exactly $4,200,895) Monolith Productions, Inc., Timegate
Hidden Deep · EA older $24.99 4,293 76% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,218,462) Cogwheel Software
Seed of the Dead: Sweet Home older $29.99 3,006 83% 90k $2.7M (exactly $2,704,498) TeamKRAMA
Bishojo Mangekyo Kotowari to Meikyu no Shojo older $29.99 2,718 95% 82k $2.4M (exactly $2,445,385) ωstar, Seikei Production
Alan Wake's American Nightmare older $8.99 8,352 74% 251k $2.3M (exactly $2,252,534) Remedy Entertainment
The Thing: Remastered $29.99 1,203 89% 36k $1.1M (exactly $1,082,339) Nightdive Studios, Computer Artworks
Gunman Contracts - Stand Alone · EA $24.99 1,180 78% 35k $885k (exactly $884,646) ANB_Seth
Clawed $19.99 729 52% 22k $437k (exactly $437,181) Flatrock Games
Haydee 3 $29.99 321 84% 9.6k $289k (exactly $288,804) Haydee Interactive
Sniper Killer $11.99 618 86% 19k $222k (exactly $222,295) Black Eyed Priest, Henry Hoare
KILLER INN · EA $9.99 670 44% 20k $201k (exactly $200,799) Square Enix, Tactic Studios
They Killed Your Cat $6.99 883 75% 26k $185k (exactly $185,165) Vekaria
Flesh Made Fear $17.99 279 92% 8.4k $151k (exactly $150,576) Tainted Pact
La Quimera · EA $29.99 167 51% 5.0k $150k (exactly $150,250) Reburn

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.