Do I ship it?

GamesAction RPGAction RPG + Thriller

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Thriller Action RPG?

Action RPG + Thriller

Of 36 developers who shipped a Thriller Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 57 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×0.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $710k, ×477 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 57 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 57 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Thriller
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 36
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $1.6k → $900 → $1.2k → $359 → $3.2k → $2.1k (still earning) → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Thriller: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 36
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $44k (exactly $44,356)
Top 5% $715k (exactly $714,842)
Developers, 2 yr 36
Released games 84
Announced 57
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Thriller
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Puzzle, RPG
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 11,678 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $44k, 1 in 20 over $710k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 57 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Killing Antidote · EA $29.99 7,512 88% 225k $6.8M (exactly $6,758,546) MetalStar Studio
The Sinking City Remastered older $39.99 5,361 75% 161k $6.4M (exactly $6,431,592) Frogwares
The Scourge | Tai Ương $19.99 1,192 93% 36k $715k (exactly $714,842) Rare Reversee, Beaztek
消失的航班,还有她她她!Lost in the secret! $19.99 602 89% 18k $361k (exactly $361,019) Humongous Pictures
Lakeview Valley older $14.99 710 82% 21k $319k (exactly $319,287) Roope Tamminen
Kingdom of Night $19.99 326 86% 9.8k $196k (exactly $195,502) Friends of Safety
Tornado: Research and Rescue · EA older $12.99 356 85% 11k $139k (exactly $138,733) Sam Kennedy
Arrogation: Unlight of Day older $19.99 227 79% 6.8k $136k (exactly $136,132) Corax_Studios
Touhou ~Red Empress Devil. $8.99 438 70% 13k $118k (exactly $118,129) STUDIO POCO
Chained in the Backrooms · EA $2.99 933 68% 28k $84k (exactly $83,690) Task+ Studios
Hariti $6.99 318 88% 9.5k $67k (exactly $66,685) Ghostcase
Miami Paradise 2 $14.99 131 94% 3.9k $59k (exactly $58,911) Entropy Digital Entertainment
Only Whores Survive 🔞 $9.99 148 61% 4.4k $44k (exactly $44,356) BanzaiProject
No Vacation for an Executioner $13.99 78 70% 2.3k $33k (exactly $32,737) JayO

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.