Do I ship it?

GamesInvestigationInvestigation + Thriller

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Thriller Investigation game?

Investigation + Thriller

Of 268 developers who shipped a Thriller Investigation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 482 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×4.9 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $220k, ×472 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 482 games are announced against 152 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 482 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Investigation + Thriller
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 268
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $3.3k → $2.7k → $2.2k → $3.6k → $3.4k → $3.1k (still earning) → $972 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Investigation + Thriller: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 268
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $2.3k (exactly $2,338)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,386)
Top 5% $224k (exactly $224,288)
Developers, 2 yr 268
Released games 662
Announced 482
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Investigation
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Thriller
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Investigation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Puzzle
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 17,639 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.3k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $220k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 136 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 482 games are announced against 152 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Investigation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Escape RoomFair61 devs · median $2.1k · 50 announced
  2. + IdlerFair15 devs · median $898 · 16 announced
  3. + TriviaLong shot8 devs · median $215 · 9 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Poor odds42 devs · median $39k · 70 announced
  5. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 27 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds64 devs · median $9.0k · 121 announced
  7. + RomancePoor odds62 devs · median $9.0k · 101 announced
  8. + GothicPoor odds26 devs · median $8.1k · 54 announced
  9. + LovecraftianPoor odds56 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds37 devs · median $6.6k · 50 announced
  11. + Card GamePoor odds14 devs · median $6.6k · 34 announced
  12. + SciencePoor odds21 devs · median $5.9k · 36 announced

All 134 pairs on the Investigation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Phasmophobia · EA older $19.99 684,009 94% 21M $410M (exactly $410,200,197) Kinetic Games
L.A. Noire older $19.99 31,099 85% 933k $19M (exactly $18,650,070) Team Bondi, Rockstar Leeds
Heavy Rain older $19.99 26,503 85% 795k $16M (exactly $15,893,849) Quantic Dream
Demonologist older $19.99 18,886 85% 567k $11M (exactly $11,325,934) Clock Wizard Games
Sherlock Holmes: The Devil's Daughter older $29.99 12,076 80% 362k $11M (exactly $10,864,777) Frogwares
Unheard - Voices of Crime older $6.99 30,978 95% 929k $6.5M (exactly $6,496,087) NEXT Studios
The Sinking City Remastered older $39.99 5,361 75% 161k $6.4M (exactly $6,431,592) Frogwares
Sherlock Holmes Chapter One older $44.99 4,189 77% 126k $5.7M (exactly $5,653,893) Frogwares
The Case of the Golden Idol older $17.99 9,794 97% 294k $5.3M (exactly $5,285,822) Color Gray Games
The Casting of Frank Stone™ older $29.99 5,580 62% 167k $5.0M (exactly $5,020,326) Supermassive Games
The Drifter $19.99 4,735 97% 142k $2.8M (exactly $2,839,580) Powerhoof, Dave Lloyd
Subliminal $9.99 3,535 74% 106k $1.1M (exactly $1,059,440) Accidental Studios
Kathy Rain 2: Soothsayer $19.99 1,244 95% 37k $746k (exactly $746,027) Clifftop Games
Dimhaven - The Lost Source $25.99 945 87% 28k $737k (exactly $736,816) Zadbox Entertainment
Staffer Retro : A Supernatural Mystery Quest $24.99 922 89% 28k $691k (exactly $691,223) Team Tetrapod
s.p.l.i.t $2.99 3,862 92% 116k $346k (exactly $346,421) Mike Klubnika
Cthulhu: The Cosmic Abyss $39.99 262 54% 7.9k $314k (exactly $314,321) Big Bad Wolf
Clock Tower: Rewind $19.99 460 88% 14k $276k (exactly $275,862) WayForward, Limited Run Games
Agatha Christie - Death on the Nile $39.99 221 78% 6.6k $265k (exactly $265,134) Microids Studio Lyon
Dread Flats $5.99 1,453 83% 44k $261k (exactly $261,104) Ghostcase

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.