Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Thriller

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Thriller Adventure game?

Adventure + Thriller

Of 1,082 developers who shipped a Thriller Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,587 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×4.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $210k, ×456 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 1,587 games are announced against 622 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 1,587 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Thriller
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,082
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.6k → $4.2k → $2.7k → $3.0k → $2.0k → $2.5k → $1.7k (still earning) → $1.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Thriller: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,082
Bottom 30% $538 (exactly $538)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,884)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,423)
Top 5% $217k (exactly $216,755)
Developers, 2 yr 1,082
Released games 2,588
Announced 1,587
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Thriller
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Walking Simulator, Puzzle
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 233,870 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $210k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 603 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,587 games are announced against 622 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Last of Us™ Part I older $59.99 65,259 85% 2.0M $117M (exactly $117,446,622) Naughty Dog LLC, Iron Galaxy Studios
Five Nights at Freddy's: Security Breach older $39.99 65,350 86% 2.0M $78M (exactly $78,400,395) Steel Wool Studios
Firewatch older $19.99 93,690 90% 2.8M $56M (exactly $56,185,893) Campo Santo
MiSide $14.99 122,007 97% 3.7M $55M (exactly $54,866,548) AIHASTO
The Last of Us™ Part II Remastered $49.99 34,252 90% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,367,724) Naughty Dog LLC, Nixxes Software, Iron… (Naughty Dog LLC, Nixxes Software, Iron Galaxy Studios)
Little Nightmares II older $29.99 50,280 92% 1.5M $45M (exactly $45,236,916) Tarsier Studios
A Plague Tale: Requiem older $49.99 20,797 90% 624k $31M (exactly $31,189,261) Asobo Studio
The Quarry older $59.99 16,127 83% 484k $29M (exactly $29,023,762) Supermassive Games
STEINS;GATE older $29.99 25,289 97% 759k $23M (exactly $22,752,513) MAGES. Inc.
Beyond: Two Souls older $19.99 37,154 87% 1.1M $22M (exactly $22,281,254) Quantic Dream
Mouthwashing $12.99 34,353 95% 1.0M $13M (exactly $13,387,364) Wrong Organ
Five Nights at Freddy's: Secret of the Mimic $39.99 10,874 86% 326k $13M (exactly $13,045,538) Steel Wool Studios
The Killing Antidote · EA $29.99 7,512 88% 225k $6.8M (exactly $6,758,546) MetalStar Studio
ROUTINE $24.99 7,322 91% 220k $5.5M (exactly $5,489,303) Lunar Software
FATAL FRAME II: Crimson Butterfly REMAKE $49.99 2,663 87% 80k $4.0M (exactly $3,993,701) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Homicipher $13.99 7,821 96% 235k $3.3M (exactly $3,282,474) 八名木Games
The Drifter $19.99 4,735 97% 142k $2.8M (exactly $2,839,580) Powerhoof, Dave Lloyd
A Quiet Place: The Road Ahead $29.99 2,331 74% 70k $2.1M (exactly $2,097,201) Stormind Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.