Do I ship it?

GamesLife SimLife Sim + Thriller

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Thriller Life Sim?

Life Sim + Thriller

Of 39 developers who shipped a Thriller Life Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 54 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $11k, ×24 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $360k, ×771 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 54 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 23.6 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 54 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Life Sim + Thriller
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 39
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.1k → $210 → $4.2k → $7.9k → $7.1k → $6.2k (still earning) → $13k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Life Sim + Thriller: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 39
Bottom 30% $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Median $11k (exactly $11,203)
Top 25% $56k (exactly $55,558)
Top 5% $366k (exactly $366,056)
Developers, 2 yr 39
Released games 63
Announced 54
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Thriller
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Life Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Adventure, Immersive Sim
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 96% positive over 127,189 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.0k, median $11k, 1 in 4 over $55k, 1 in 20 over $360k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.0k. 5 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 54 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Life Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds38 devs · median $54k · 21 announced
  2. + MinigamesStrong odds20 devs · median $11k · 19 announced
  3. + MusicStrong odds28 devs · median $9.2k · 20 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair144 devs · median $19k · 153 announced
  5. + Football (Soccer)Fair10 devs · median $10k · 16 announced
  6. + FaithFair11 devs · median $9.4k · 13 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceFair92 devs · median $7.3k · 121 announced
  8. + GamblingFair28 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + DemonsFair16 devs · median $2.4k · 22 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair162 devs · median $2.4k · 219 announced
  11. + LogicFair70 devs · median $1.5k · 74 announced
  12. + ZombiesFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 34 announced

All 173 pairs on the Life Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
MiSide $14.99 122,007 97% 3.7M $55M (exactly $54,866,548) AIHASTO
Sunken Engine $14.99 814 80% 24k $366k (exactly $366,056) Two Nomads Studio
Blood Money: Lethal Eden $8.99 1,262 91% 38k $340k (exactly $340,361) 碧火互娱
Nested Lands · EA $14.99 482 73% 14k $217k (exactly $216,755) 1M Bits Horde
Escape from Yandere $4.99 1,335 75% 40k $200k (exactly $199,850) VorhGames
Corner Shop: NightShift $19.99 206 84% 6.2k $124k (exactly $123,538) Live Motion Games
The Unholy Priest $9.99 370 72% 11k $111k (exactly $110,889) Grejuva
Dismantling Workshop of Bio-Girl $29.99 120 61% 3.6k $108k (exactly $107,964) 渡里laboratory
Haunted Room : 205 $5.99 387 94% 12k $70k (exactly $69,544) Gameloop
Nightmare Shift $8.99 206 72% 6.2k $56k (exactly $55,558) Binary Lunar

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.