Games › Puzzle › Puzzle + Thriller
Should I ship a Thriller Puzzle game?
Puzzle + Thriller
Of 537 developers who shipped a Thriller Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 741 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.8 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $210k, ×455 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 741 games are announced against 273 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $450 (exactly $450) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.3k (exactly $1,317) |
| Top 25% | $9.4k (exactly $9,444) |
| Top 5% | $216k (exactly $215,914) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 537 |
| Released games | 1,308 |
| Announced | 741 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $5.81 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Puzzle; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Walking Simulator
- Price point
- $5.81 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.81.
The top 10 games average 96% positive over 148,239 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 314 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 741 games are announced against 273 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Puzzle with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + Medical SimFair
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + VampiresFair
- + CatsFair
- + DemonsFair
- + God GameFair
- + RomanceFair
- + AutomationFair
- + Tower DefenseFair
- + LemmingsFair
Comparable games
MiSide 2024 · $55M 
Little Nightmares II 2021 · $45M 
L.A. Noire 2011 · $19M 
Superliminal 2020 · $17M 
Firework 2021 · $12M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | MiSide | $14.99 | 122,007 97% | 3.7M | $55M (exactly $54,866,548) | AIHASTO | |
| | Little Nightmares II | older | $29.99 | 50,280 92% | 1.5M | $45M (exactly $45,236,916) | Tarsier Studios |
| | L.A. Noire | older | $19.99 | 31,099 85% | 933k | $19M (exactly $18,650,070) | Team Bondi, Rockstar Leeds |
| | Superliminal | older | $19.99 | 28,428 94% | 853k | $17M (exactly $17,048,272) | Pillow Castle |
| | Firework | older | $9.99 | 41,172 97% | 1.2M | $12M (exactly $12,339,248) | Shiying Studio |
 | Sherlock Holmes: The Devil's Daughter | older | $29.99 | 12,076 80% | 362k | $11M (exactly $10,864,777) | Frogwares |
 | Secret Neighbor: Hello Neighbor Multiplayer | older | $19.99 | 14,865 86% | 446k | $8.9M (exactly $8,914,540) | Hologryph, Eerie Guest Studios |
 | 港詭實錄ParanormalHK | older | $12.99 | 18,874 89% | 566k | $7.4M (exactly $7,355,198) | Ghostpie Studio |
 | The Killing Antidote | · EA | $29.99 | 7,512 88% | 225k | $6.8M (exactly $6,758,546) | MetalStar Studio |
 | Unheard - Voices of Crime | older | $6.99 | 30,978 95% | 929k | $6.5M (exactly $6,496,087) | NEXT Studios |
 | ROUTINE | $24.99 | 7,322 91% | 220k | $5.5M (exactly $5,489,303) | Lunar Software | |
 | A Quiet Place: The Road Ahead | $29.99 | 2,331 74% | 70k | $2.1M (exactly $2,097,201) | Stormind Games | |
 | Eclipsium | $12.99 | 3,306 91% | 99k | $1.3M (exactly $1,288,348) | Housefire | |
 | Kathy Rain 2: Soothsayer | $19.99 | 1,244 95% | 37k | $746k (exactly $746,027) | Clifftop Games | |
 | Dimhaven - The Lost Source | $25.99 | 945 87% | 28k | $737k (exactly $736,816) | Zadbox Entertainment | |
 | Luto | $19.99 | 1,225 85% | 37k | $735k (exactly $734,632) | Broken Bird Games | |
 | The Scourge | Tai Ương | $19.99 | 1,192 93% | 36k | $715k (exactly $714,842) | Rare Reversee, Beaztek | |
 | One-Eyed Likho | $19.99 | 1,155 93% | 35k | $693k (exactly $692,654) | Morteshka |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.