Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Strategy RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG

Of 1,078 developers who shipped a Strategy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 2,036 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×2.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $630k, ×1010 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 2,036 games are announced against 648 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 2,036 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,078
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.2k → $8.4k → $4.2k → $2.7k → $2.1k → $2.4k → $1.3k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,078
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,647)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $20,380)
Top 5% $634k (exactly $634,151)
Developers, 2 yr 1,078
Released games 3,056
Announced 2,036
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 201,456 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $630k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 558 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 2,036 games are announced against 648 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Strategy RPG

43 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Strategy RPG + Conspiracy Fair $1.2k 19 devs
  2. Strategy RPG + Martial Arts Poor odds $18k 28 devs
  3. Strategy RPG + Military Poor odds $9.4k 35 devs
  4. Strategy RPG + War Poor odds $8.7k 83 devs
  5. Strategy RPG + Romance Poor odds $8.6k 32 devs
  6. Strategy RPG + Lovecraftian Poor odds $6.9k 13 devs
  7. Strategy RPG + Psychological Poor odds $6.9k 18 devs
  8. Strategy RPG + LGBTQ+ Poor odds $6.7k 19 devs
  9. Strategy RPG + Mythology Poor odds $6.1k 37 devs
  10. Strategy RPG + Female Protagonist Poor odds $6.0k 93 devs
  11. Strategy RPG + Dystopian Poor odds $5.4k 13 devs
  12. Strategy RPG + Sci-fi Poor odds $5.0k 70 devs
  13. Strategy RPG + Gothic Poor odds $5.0k 10 devs
  14. Strategy RPG + Historical Poor odds $4.8k 64 devs
  15. Strategy RPG + Noir Poor odds $3.0k 17 devs
  16. Strategy RPG + Magic Poor odds $2.7k 186 devs
  17. Strategy RPG + Fantasy Poor odds $2.7k 421 devs
  18. Strategy RPG + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $2.7k 42 devs
  19. Strategy RPG + Modern Poor odds $2.7k 25 devs
  20. Strategy RPG + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $2.7k 156 devs
  21. Strategy RPG + Cyberpunk Poor odds $2.7k 26 devs
  22. Strategy RPG + Psychological Horror Poor odds $2.5k 30 devs
  23. Strategy RPG + Dragons Poor odds $2.4k 25 devs
  24. Strategy RPG + Crime Poor odds $2.0k 13 devs
  25. Strategy RPG + Medieval Poor odds $1.9k 206 devs
  26. Strategy RPG + Supernatural Poor odds $1.8k 18 devs
  27. Strategy RPG + Space Poor odds $1.7k 25 devs
  28. Strategy RPG + Robots Poor odds $1.7k 11 devs
  29. Strategy RPG + Horror Poor odds $1.3k 49 devs
  30. Strategy RPG + Alternate History Poor odds $1.3k 40 devs
  31. Strategy RPG + Futuristic Poor odds $1.2k 36 devs
  32. Strategy RPG + Mystery Poor odds $1.2k 53 devs
  33. Strategy RPG + Capitalism Poor odds $899 27 devs
  34. Strategy RPG + Zombies Poor odds $839 25 devs
  35. Strategy RPG + Artificial Intelligence Poor odds $600 27 devs
  36. Strategy RPG + Detective Poor odds $599 23 devs
  37. Strategy RPG + Aliens Poor odds $505 20 devs
  38. Strategy RPG + World War II Dead $471k 2 devs
  39. Strategy RPG + Mechs Dead $17k 10 devs
  40. Strategy RPG + Thriller Dead $12k 12 devs
  41. Strategy RPG + Pirates Dead $3.4k 7 devs
  42. Strategy RPG + Nature Dead $299 30 devs
  43. Strategy RPG + Demons Dead $240 27 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition 2017 · $244M 鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal 2023 · $114M Kenshi 2018 · $89M Persona 3 Reload 2024 · $78M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition older $44.99 180,782 95% 5.4M $244M (exactly $244,001,465) Larian Studios
鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal older $19.99 190,184 56% 5.7M $114M (exactly $114,053,345) 鬼谷工作室
Kenshi older $29.99 98,451 95% 3.0M $89M (exactly $88,576,365) Lo-Fi Games
Persona 3 Reload older $59.99 43,497 95% 1.3M $78M (exactly $78,281,551) ATLUS
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Metaphor: ReFantazio $69.99 25,224 89% 757k $53M (exactly $52,962,833) ATLUS
The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome $29.99 56,535 65% 1.7M $51M (exactly $50,864,540) ConchShip Games
Marvel's Midnight Suns older $59.99 17,060 82% 512k $31M (exactly $30,702,882) Firaxis Games
STAR WARS Zero Company™ $49.99 19,521 82% 586k $29M (exactly $29,275,644) Bit Reactor
MENACE · EA $39.99 12,281 90% 368k $15M (exactly $14,733,516) Overhype Studios
Revenge on gold diggers $6.99 46,610 80% 1.4M $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) 前方工作室
FINAL FANTASY TACTICS - The Ivalice Chronicles $49.99 5,673 89% 170k $8.5M (exactly $8,507,798) Square Enix
Magicraft $15.99 15,051 92% 452k $7.2M (exactly $7,219,965) Wave Games
Back to the Dawn $23.99 8,555 94% 257k $6.2M (exactly $6,157,034) Metal Head Games
Xenonauts 2 $39.99 4,853 81% 146k $5.8M (exactly $5,822,144) Goldhawk Interactive
龙胤立志传 $19.99 7,153 77% 215k $4.3M (exactly $4,289,654) TPP Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.