Do I ship it?

GamesStrategy RPGStrategy RPG + Military

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Military Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + Military

Of 35 developers who shipped a Military Strategy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 95 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.4k, ×15 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $3.9M, ×6352 the market median. Revenue is up 4805% on the market; 95 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 14.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 4805% on the market, 95 announced, ×5.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Military
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $14k → $34k → $719 → $498k → $6.9k → $33k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Military: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $9.4k (exactly $9,353)
Top 25% $498k (exactly $498,351)
Top 5% $4.0M (exactly $3,989,204)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 170
Announced 95
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 4805% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Military
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Strategy RPG; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Simulation
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 27,402 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $9.4k, 1 in 4 over $490k, 1 in 20 over $3.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 6 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 95 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Battle Brothers older $29.99 26,118 87% 784k $23M (exactly $23,498,365) Overhype Studios
Jagged Alliance 3 older $44.99 10,882 89% 326k $15M (exactly $14,687,435) Haemimont Games
Ultimate General: Civil War older $29.99 8,331 88% 250k $7.5M (exactly $7,495,401) Game-Labs
Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts older $34.99 6,664 62% 200k $7.0M (exactly $6,995,201) Game-Labs
Tactical Breach Wizards older $19.99 11,485 97% 345k $6.9M (exactly $6,887,554) Suspicious Developments
HighFleet older $29.99 7,024 88% 211k $6.3M (exactly $6,319,493) Konstantin Koshutin
龙胤立志传 $19.99 7,153 77% 215k $4.3M (exactly $4,289,654) TPP Studio
Heroes' Vow: Three Kingdoms · EA $19.99 6,652 88% 200k $4.0M (exactly $3,989,204) Free Wing
NEBULOUS: Fleet Command · EA older $29.99 4,074 81% 122k $3.7M (exactly $3,665,378) Eridanus Industries
Master of Command $29.99 3,840 92% 115k $3.5M (exactly $3,454,848) Armchair Interactive
Cyber Knights: Flashpoint $29.99 2,926 93% 88k $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) Trese Brothers
Three Kingdoms Mushouden $24.99 1,876 72% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,406,437) NanBei Studio
ZeroSpace · EA $39.99 1,161 78% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,392,852) Starlance Studios, Ironward
Metal Slug Tactics $24.99 1,152 76% 35k $864k (exactly $863,654) Leikir Studio
Mandate Order · EA $19.99 1,110 81% 33k $666k (exactly $665,667) Digital Sky
Knights in Tight Spaces $19.99 831 69% 25k $498k (exactly $498,351) Ground Shatter
Huaxia: Warring States · EA $19.99 701 61% 21k $420k (exactly $420,390) 秦川汉渚

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.