Do I ship it?

GamesStrategy RPGStrategy RPG + Space

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + Space

Of 25 developers who shipped a Space Strategy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 75 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×2.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $270k, ×445 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 75 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.7 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 75 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Space
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $713 → $1.8k → $5.0k → $1.7k → $13k (still earning) → $4.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Space: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,678)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,949)
Top 5% $280k (exactly $279,638)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 88
Announced 75
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Space
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Exploration, Base Building
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 2,993 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 9 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 75 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SD GUNDAM G GENERATION CROSS RAYS older $59.99 6,939 82% 208k $12M (exactly $12,488,118) TOM CREATE, 株式会社トムクリエイト
Starpoint Gemini Warlords older $34.99 3,076 72% 92k $3.2M (exactly $3,228,877) Little Green Men Games
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
Polaris Sector older $39.99 419 70% 13k $503k (exactly $502,674) SoftWarWare
Halcyon 6: Starbase Commander older $14.99 964 80% 29k $434k (exactly $433,511) Massive Damage, Inc.
Star Dynasties older $30.99 421 70% 13k $391k (exactly $391,404) Pawley Games
Lightracer Spark older $12.99 970 83% 29k $378k (exactly $378,009) Smartmelon Games
Buzz Aldrin's Space Program Manager older $29.99 418 74% 13k $376k (exactly $376,075) Polar Motion
Base One older $24.99 458 36% 14k $343k (exactly $343,363) PixFroze
Sector Unknown $24.99 373 80% 11k $280k (exactly $279,638) Creative Storm Entertainment
Astrobuilder $14.99 350 88% 11k $157k (exactly $157,395) wastudio
Chaos Front $19.99 252 59% 7.6k $151k (exactly $151,124) Han Zhiyu
Frontier: Path of Shadows $14.99 49 91% 1.5k $22k (exactly $22,035) Oduvan Games
WarOS · EA $19.99 29 72% 870 $17k (exactly $17,391) The7 Studio
Spacefleet: Heat Death · EA $11.99 36 86% 1.1k $13k (exactly $12,949) Spacezero Interactive
Who's Hungry? $4.99 60 100% 1.8k $9.0k (exactly $8,982) Daniel Fernández
Expedition: Shadow World $15.99 12 100% 360 $5.8k (exactly $5,756) Pavel Tanonov
Starsim $11.99 14 71% 420 $5.0k (exactly $5,036) Viktor Martynovsky

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.