Do I ship it?

GamesStrategy RPGStrategy RPG + Mythology

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mythological Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + Mythology

Of 37 developers who shipped a Mythological Strategy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 76 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.1k, ×9.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×2327 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 76 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 76 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Mythology
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 37
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.3k → $21k → $151k → $35k → $19k → $599 → $15k (still earning) → $24k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Mythology: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 37
Bottom 30% $897 (exactly $897)
Median $6.1k (exactly $6,110)
Top 25% $73k (exactly $73,485)
Top 5% $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469)
Developers, 2 yr 37
Released games 97
Announced 76
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Mythology
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 65% positive over 62,016 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $6.1k, 1 in 4 over $73k, 1 in 20 over $1.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 76 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal older $19.99 190,184 56% 5.7M $114M (exactly $114,053,345) 鬼谷工作室
The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome $29.99 56,535 65% 1.7M $51M (exactly $50,864,540) ConchShip Games
King Arthur: Knight's Tale older $44.99 6,722 83% 202k $9.1M (exactly $9,072,683) NeocoreGames
Shin Megami Tensei III Nocturne HD Remaster older $49.99 3,989 87% 120k $6.0M (exactly $5,982,303) ATLUS
Black Book older $24.99 5,306 93% 159k $4.0M (exactly $3,977,908) Morteshka
Depersonalization older $19.99 6,041 92% 181k $3.6M (exactly $3,622,788) MeowNature
Ascension · EA $19.99 2,437 60% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469) Element Game 微元游戏
Aces & Adventures older $19.99 2,220 89% 67k $1.3M (exactly $1,331,334) Triple.B.Titles
Rogue Lords older $24.99 1,442 71% 43k $1.1M (exactly $1,081,067) Leikir Studio, Cyanide Studio
King Arthur: Legion IX older $19.99 774 72% 23k $464k (exactly $464,168) NeocoreGames
Ludus Magnatus: Gladiator Manager Simulator · EA $24.99 612 81% 18k $459k (exactly $458,816) Contec Games
无休仙途 $5.99 966 72% 29k $174k (exactly $173,590) GOCORE
👑Idle Calibur:Zero💕(选王之剑:零) $10.99 445 80% 13k $147k (exactly $146,716) 绝汪
Stack to Ascension $12.99 331 54% 9.9k $129k (exactly $128,991) Stack to Ascension
Cultivation Magic World · EA $12.99 276 78% 8.3k $108k (exactly $107,557) DMG Studio
Celestial Descends · EA $15.99 195 86% 5.9k $94k (exactly $93,542) Destined Game Studio
Spear Song · EA $14.99 170 88% 5.1k $76k (exactly $76,449) Divovision Games
Touhou Spell Carnival $49.99 49 77% 1.5k $73k (exactly $73,485) Idea Factory, Compile Heart, STING

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.