Do I ship it?

GamesStrategy RPGStrategy RPG + Psychological

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + Psychological

Only 18 developers shipped a Psychological Strategy RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Revenge on gold diggers , made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.9k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $9.7M, ×15564 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 31 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 31 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Psychological
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $713 → $179k → $366k → $299 (still earning) → $2.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Psychological: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $6.9k (exactly $6,886)
Top 25% $128k (exactly $127,972)
Top 5% $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 33
Announced 31
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Psychological
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Choose Your Own Adventure
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Cinematic, Emotional
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 50,395 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $6.9k, 1 in 4 over $120k, 1 in 20 over $9.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 6 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Revenge on gold diggers $6.99 46,610 80% 1.4M $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) 前方工作室
Digimon Survive older $59.99 3,124 78% 94k $5.6M (exactly $5,622,263) HYDE, Inc.
极速营救 $9.99 1,860 86% 56k $557k (exactly $557,442) 优映文化, 想象颗粒
我打不过漂亮的她们 $10.99 1,111 95% 33k $366k (exactly $366,297) 想象颗粒
The Stone of Madness $29.99 199 77% 6.0k $179k (exactly $179,040) The Game Kitchen
晨昏线 $9.99 427 76% 13k $128k (exactly $127,972) Enter Games
Card Detective older $3.99 145 73% 4.4k $17k (exactly $17,356) 神探饭店制作组
Who's Hungry? $4.99 60 100% 1.8k $9.0k (exactly $8,982) Daniel Fernández
Samara $8.99 32 90% 960 $8.6k (exactly $8,630) MissingShip
Paracom $10.99 21 90% 630 $6.9k (exactly $6,924) Steel Widow Klan
Chainsaw $4.99 46 95% 1.4k $6.9k (exactly $6,886) ikiru997
NO STRANGERS $4.99 29 58% 870 $4.3k (exactly $4,341) Xeirel Software

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.