Do I ship it?

GamesStrategy RPGStrategy RPG + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + Medieval

Of 206 developers who shipped a Medieval Strategy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 376 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $600k, ×959 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 376 games are announced against 116 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 30% on the market, 376 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 206
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $8.6k → $1.8k → $1.3k → $4.3k → $1.9k → $1.1k (still earning) → $3.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 206
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Top 25% $32k (exactly $31,601)
Top 5% $602k (exactly $602,305)
Developers, 2 yr 206
Released games 534
Announced 376
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.89

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Tactical RPG
Price point
$9.89 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.89.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 22,151 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $31k, 1 in 20 over $600k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 7 in 10 of the 99 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 376 games are announced against 116 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Pathfinder: Kingmaker — Enhanced Plus Edition older $19.99 28,146 77% 844k $17M (exactly $16,879,156) Owlcat Games
King Arthur: Knight's Tale older $44.99 6,722 83% 202k $9.1M (exactly $9,072,683) NeocoreGames
FINAL FANTASY TACTICS - The Ivalice Chronicles $49.99 5,673 89% 170k $8.5M (exactly $8,507,798) Square Enix
Ash of Gods: Redemption older $24.99 2,946 73% 88k $2.2M (exactly $2,208,616) AurumDust
Lessaria: Fantasy Kingdom Sim $24.90 2,938 77% 88k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,686) Rockbee Team
Age of Reforging: The Freelands $29.99 2,291 71% 69k $2.1M (exactly $2,061,213) PersonaeGame Studio
SpellForce: Conquest of Eo older $29.99 2,149 80% 64k $1.9M (exactly $1,933,455) Owned by Gravity
Sovereign Tower $19.99 3,087 93% 93k $1.9M (exactly $1,851,274) WILD WITS GAMES
Gladiator Guild Manager older $14.99 3,808 80% 114k $1.7M (exactly $1,712,458) Entertainment Forge
Brigandine The Legend of Runersia older $39.99 1,331 85% 40k $1.6M (exactly $1,596,801) Happinet, Matrix
Frosthaven · EA $39.99 814 72% 24k $977k (exactly $976,556) Snapshot Games Inc.
Lost Eidolons: Veil of the Witch $24.99 1,293 81% 39k $969k (exactly $969,362) Ocean Drive Studio, Inc.
Dungeon Settlers · EA $24.99 1,117 79% 34k $837k (exactly $837,415) CanOpener
再刷一把2:金色传说 $9.99 2,748 44% 82k $824k (exactly $823,576) 滑稽工作室
Dice Gambit $24.99 1,080 87% 32k $810k (exactly $809,676) Chromatic Ink
Mandate Order · EA $19.99 1,110 81% 33k $666k (exactly $665,667) Digital Sky

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.