Do I ship it?

GamesStrategy RPGStrategy RPG + War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a War Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + War

Of 83 developers who shipped a War Strategy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 146 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.7k, ×14 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $3.4M, ×5501 the market median. Revenue is up 360% on the market; 146 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 360% on the market, 146 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 83
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.9k → $1.1k → $6.5k → $5.4k → $8.7k → $14k → $34k (still earning) → $7.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 83
Bottom 30% $600 (exactly $600)
Median $8.7k (exactly $8,683)
Top 25% $131k (exactly $131,290)
Top 5% $3.5M (exactly $3,454,848)
Developers, 2 yr 83
Released games 284
Announced 146
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 360% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
War
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Strategy RPG; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Tactical RPG
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 45,565 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $8.7k, 1 in 4 over $130k, 1 in 20 over $3.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 48 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 146 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Age of Wonders 4 older $49.99 16,899 82% 507k $25M (exactly $25,343,430) Triumph Studios
Battle Brothers older $29.99 26,118 87% 784k $23M (exactly $23,498,365) Overhype Studios
MENACE · EA $39.99 12,281 90% 368k $15M (exactly $14,733,516) Overhype Studios
Kingdom Heroes 8 older $29.99 12,793 55% 384k $12M (exactly $11,509,862) USERJOY Technology Co.,Ltd.
Valkyria Chronicles 4 Complete Edition older $49.99 5,691 86% 171k $8.5M (exactly $8,534,793) SEGA
Ultimate General: Civil War older $29.99 8,331 88% 250k $7.5M (exactly $7,495,401) Game-Labs
Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts older $34.99 6,664 62% 200k $7.0M (exactly $6,995,201) Game-Labs
Partisans 1941 older $29.99 7,531 82% 226k $6.8M (exactly $6,775,641) Alter Games
Valkyria Chronicles™ older $19.99 10,832 89% 325k $6.5M (exactly $6,495,950) SEGA
Xenonauts 2 $39.99 4,853 81% 146k $5.8M (exactly $5,822,144) Goldhawk Interactive
龙胤立志传 $19.99 7,153 77% 215k $4.3M (exactly $4,289,654) TPP Studio
Heroes' Vow: Three Kingdoms · EA $19.99 6,652 88% 200k $4.0M (exactly $3,989,204) Free Wing
Master of Command $29.99 3,840 92% 115k $3.5M (exactly $3,454,848) Armchair Interactive
Cyber Knights: Flashpoint $29.99 2,926 93% 88k $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) Trese Brothers
Warhammer 40,000: Mechanicus II $39.99 2,088 53% 63k $2.5M (exactly $2,504,974) Bulwark Studios
Songs of Silence $29.99 2,367 79% 71k $2.1M (exactly $2,129,590) Chimera Entertainment
Three Kingdoms Mushouden $24.99 1,876 72% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,406,437) NanBei Studio
The Great Villainess: Strategy of Lily $29.99 1,529 85% 46k $1.4M (exactly $1,375,641) Alliance Arts, One or Eight, WSS Playgr… (Alliance Arts, One or Eight, WSS Playground)

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.