Do I ship it?

GamesStrategy RPGStrategy RPG + Gothic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gothic Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + Gothic

Only 10 developers shipped a Gothic Strategy RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Atre: Dominance Wars, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.0k, ×8.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $25k, ×41 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 32 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.0 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 32 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Gothic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Gothic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Median $5.0k (exactly $5,033)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $13,941)
Top 5% $25k (exactly $25,490)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 26
Announced 32
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 300% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Gothic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 66% positive over 237 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $5.0k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $25k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 32 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Warhammer 40,000: Chaos Gate - Daemonhunters older $44.99 11,426 76% 343k $15M (exactly $15,421,672) Complex Games
Rogue Lords older $24.99 1,442 71% 43k $1.1M (exactly $1,081,067) Leikir Studio, Cyanide Studio
Immortal Realms: Vampire Wars older $29.99 408 62% 12k $367k (exactly $367,078) Palindrome Interactive
BEAST: False Prophet · EA older $24.99 189 64% 5.7k $142k (exactly $141,693) False Prophet
Stones Keeper: Director's Cut older $16.99 105 71% 3.2k $54k (exactly $53,518) SK Team
Atre: Dominance Wars · EA $24.99 34 67% 1.0k $25k (exactly $25,490) Ironward
The Dream Labyrinth $14.99 44 81% 1.3k $20k (exactly $19,787) GGG`s
Lord of the Dark Castle older $4.99 110 73% 3.3k $16k (exactly $16,467) Craze Creative Studios
Deathblight Jormungandr $14.99 31 48% 930 $14k (exactly $13,941) Projekt Wolfenstahl
NightMare King $4.99 59 83% 1.8k $8.8k (exactly $8,832) Starmoon Cat
Queen Slayer $6.99 24 54% 720 $5.0k (exactly $5,033) Mantaray161
Dark Fairy Tale $3.99 34 38% 1.0k $4.1k (exactly $4,070) Fun Workshop
Magic Cauldron - Dungeons $4.99 9 77% 270 $1.3k (exactly $1,347) Manuel Schenk Games
Roll & Slay : Dice Caster · EA $4.99 2 50% 60 $299 (exactly $299) ProjectSODA
The Bone Crypt $4.49 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) T-Squared Conglomerate
Ironwake · EA $7.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Seahorse Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.