Do I ship it?

GamesStrategy RPGStrategy RPG + LGBTQ+

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an LGBTQ+ Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + LGBTQ+

Only 19 developers shipped an LGBTQ+ Strategy RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Back to the Dawn, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.7k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $6.1M, ×9804 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 28 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 28 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + LGBTQ+
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $64k → $6.7k → $47k → $4.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + LGBTQ+: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,258)
Median $6.7k (exactly $6,746)
Top 25% $85k (exactly $85,472)
Top 5% $6.2M (exactly $6,157,034)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 54
Announced 28
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
LGBTQ+
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Choices Matter, RPG
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Cinematic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 30,196 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.3k, median $6.7k, 1 in 4 over $85k, 1 in 20 over $6.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.3k. 7 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Back to the Dawn $23.99 8,555 94% 257k $6.2M (exactly $6,157,034) Metal Head Games
Road to Empress Ⅱ $18.00 7,773 80% 233k $4.2M (exactly $4,197,420) New One Studio
Road to Empress I $8.49 11,829 86% 355k $3.0M (exactly $3,012,846) New One Studio
The Great Villainess: Strategy of Lily $29.99 1,529 85% 46k $1.4M (exactly $1,375,641) Alliance Arts, One or Eight, WSS Playgr… (Alliance Arts, One or Eight, WSS Playground)
Capes older $39.99 446 67% 13k $535k (exactly $535,066) Spitfire Interactive
Masquerada: Songs and Shadows older $19.99 348 88% 10k $209k (exactly $208,696) Witching Hour Studios
Memoirs of a Battle Brothel older $19.99 207 84% 6.2k $124k (exactly $124,138) A Memory of Eternity
Monster Souls: Chains of Chimera $34.99 112 90% 3.4k $118k (exactly $117,566) inputHero
Horny Housewives older $12.99 232 59% 7.0k $90k (exactly $90,410) Entropy Digital Entertainment
Maliki : Poison Of The Past $29.99 95 93% 2.9k $85k (exactly $85,472) Blue Banshee
Bonnie Bear Saves Frogtime $16.99 143 98% 4.3k $73k (exactly $72,887) Bonte Avond
Gales of Nayeli $24.99 87 88% 2.6k $65k (exactly $65,224) Blindcoco Studios
Class of Heroes 3 Remaster $29.99 52 67% 1.6k $47k (exactly $46,784) ACQUIRE Corp., Zerodiv
Netoria Tactics 2 · EA $14.99 21 95% 630 $9.4k (exactly $9,444) Apollo Seven Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.