Do I ship it?

GamesStrategy RPGStrategy RPG + Romance

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Romance Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + Romance

Of 32 developers who shipped a Romance Strategy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 53 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.6k, ×14 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.8M, ×2948 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 53 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 53 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Romance
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.3k → $90k → $66k → $27k → $2.5k → $14k → $5.7k (still earning) → $506k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Romance: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $2.4k (exactly $2,427)
Median $8.6k (exactly $8,573)
Top 25% $61k (exactly $61,159)
Top 5% $1.9M (exactly $1,851,274)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 95
Announced 53
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Romance
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Visual Novel, Dating Sim
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Lore-Rich, Emotional
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 56,615 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.5k, median $8.6k, 1 in 4 over $61k, 1 in 20 over $1.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.5k. 6 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 53 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition older $44.99 180,782 95% 5.4M $244M (exactly $244,001,465) Larian Studios
Revenge on gold diggers $6.99 46,610 80% 1.4M $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) 前方工作室
Symphony of War: The Nephilim Saga older $19.99 12,880 94% 386k $7.7M (exactly $7,724,136) Dancing Dragon Games
Valkyria Chronicles™ older $19.99 10,832 89% 325k $6.5M (exactly $6,495,950) SEGA
Shadow Gambit: The Cursed Crew older $39.99 5,190 91% 156k $6.2M (exactly $6,226,443) Mimimi Games
The Legend of Heroes: Trails in the Sky older $19.99 8,801 94% 264k $5.3M (exactly $5,277,960) Nihon Falcom
Utawarerumono: Prelude to the Fallen older $59.99 1,328 93% 40k $2.4M (exactly $2,390,002) AQUAPLUS
Sovereign Tower $19.99 3,087 93% 93k $1.9M (exactly $1,851,274) WILD WITS GAMES
Crossroads Inn Anniversary Edition older $14.99 3,579 55% 107k $1.6M (exactly $1,609,476) Klabater
The Great Villainess: Strategy of Lily $29.99 1,529 85% 46k $1.4M (exactly $1,375,641) Alliance Arts, One or Eight, WSS Playgr… (Alliance Arts, One or Eight, WSS Playground)
极速营救 $9.99 1,860 86% 56k $557k (exactly $557,442) 优映文化, 想象颗粒
Ledgerbound $29.99 562 92% 17k $506k (exactly $505,631) OmniMegaSuperCorp
恋爱吗?我家猫会后空翻 $9.99 1,508 96% 45k $452k (exactly $451,948) 光循花火工作室
我打不过漂亮的她们 $10.99 1,111 95% 33k $366k (exactly $366,297) 想象颗粒
Shadow Lotus $14.99 136 70% 4.1k $61k (exactly $61,159) Entropy Digital Entertainment
The Next Journey Of Life $12.99 147 63% 4.4k $57k (exactly $57,286) FOREVER GAME
Bow Down & Eyes Up $19.99 65 66% 2.0k $39k (exactly $38,980) Yamada Mikio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.