Do I ship it?

GamesStrategy RPGStrategy RPG + Crime

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crime Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + Crime

Only 13 developers shipped a Crime Strategy RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Back to the Dawn, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.0k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $390; 1 in 20 cleared $6.1M, ×9804 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 27 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 27 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Crime
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $17k → $6.5k → $5.8k → $6.9k → $1.0k (still earning) → $2.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Crime: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $390 (exactly $390)
Median $2.0k (exactly $1,977)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $11,389)
Top 5% $6.2M (exactly $6,157,034)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 44
Announced 27
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Crime
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Strategy RPG; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Dating Sim, Simulation
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 10,906 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $390, median $2.0k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $6.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $390. 5 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Back to the Dawn $23.99 8,555 94% 257k $6.2M (exactly $6,157,034) Metal Head Games
Empire of Sin older $39.99 4,544 49% 136k $5.5M (exactly $5,451,437) Romero Games
BM General Hospital $7.99 1,368 86% 41k $328k (exactly $327,910) zzzgame
This Is the President older $14.99 359 67% 11k $161k (exactly $161,442) SuperPAC
Vigilantes older $14.99 276 80% 8.3k $124k (exactly $124,117) Timeslip Softworks
Black Gold - Shining Town $13.99 255 80% 7.7k $107k (exactly $107,024) Morexingame
Midnight Protocol older $14.99 237 87% 7.1k $107k (exactly $106,579) LuGus Studios
Tru Or Die older $9.99 336 52% 10k $101k (exactly $100,699) Tru Hunnit
Trapper: Drug Dealing RPG · EA older $19.99 102 88% 3.1k $61k (exactly $61,169) Lathon Gaming
BM game Co. $7.99 236 75% 7.1k $57k (exactly $56,569) zzzgame
BM Love Cafe $7.99 204 77% 6.1k $49k (exactly $48,899) zzzgame
My proud girlfriend--Lina Chapter $5.99 210 91% 6.3k $38k (exactly $37,737) zzzgame
Prison Notes $9.99 38 94% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,389) 闻岚工坊(Vinland Studio)
Paracom $10.99 21 90% 630 $6.9k (exactly $6,924) Steel Widow Klan
EmpireX - Business, Real Estate and Crime Simulator $14.99 8 75% 240 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) darkwolf66
Bratki $5.99 11 72% 330 $2.0k (exactly $1,977) VZLab

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.