Do I ship it?

GamesStrategy RPGStrategy RPG + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + Sci-fi

Of 70 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Strategy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 189 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.0k, ×8.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $2.6M, ×4192 the market median. Revenue is up 325% on the market; 189 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 325% on the market, 189 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 70
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $539 → $95k → $4.2k → $5.0k → $6.7k → $2.4k → $6.3k (still earning) → $22k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 70
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $5.0k (exactly $5,036)
Top 25% $69k (exactly $69,252)
Top 5% $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522)
Developers, 2 yr 70
Released games 229
Announced 189
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 325% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 45,417 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $5.0k, 1 in 4 over $69k, 1 in 20 over $2.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 44 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 189 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
STAR WARS Zero Company™ $49.99 19,521 82% 586k $29M (exactly $29,275,644) Bit Reactor
SCARLET NEXUS older $59.99 13,749 81% 412k $25M (exactly $24,744,075) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
Battle Brothers older $29.99 26,118 87% 784k $23M (exactly $23,498,365) Overhype Studios
Warhammer 40,000: Chaos Gate - Daemonhunters older $44.99 11,426 76% 343k $15M (exactly $15,421,672) Complex Games
MENACE · EA $39.99 12,281 90% 368k $15M (exactly $14,733,516) Overhype Studios
SD GUNDAM G GENERATION CROSS RAYS older $59.99 6,939 82% 208k $12M (exactly $12,488,118) TOM CREATE, 株式会社トムクリエイト
Super Robot Wars 30 older $59.99 5,608 85% 168k $10M (exactly $10,092,718) Bandai Namco Forge Digitals Inc.
HighFleet older $29.99 7,024 88% 211k $6.3M (exactly $6,319,493) Konstantin Koshutin
Xenonauts 2 $39.99 4,853 81% 146k $5.8M (exactly $5,822,144) Goldhawk Interactive
Reverse Collapse: Code Name Bakery older $24.99 4,861 78% 146k $3.6M (exactly $3,644,292) Shanghai Sunborn Network Technology Co.… (Shanghai Sunborn Network Technology Co., Ltd.)
Cyber Knights: Flashpoint $29.99 2,926 93% 88k $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) Trese Brothers
Warhammer 40,000: Mechanicus II $39.99 2,088 53% 63k $2.5M (exactly $2,504,974) Bulwark Studios
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
Warhounds $34.99 735 71% 22k $772k (exactly $771,530) Everplay DMCC
Utawarerumono: Past and Present Rediscovered $59.99 289 83% 8.7k $520k (exactly $520,113) AQUAPLUS
Aether & Iron $24.99 521 84% 16k $391k (exactly $390,594) Seismic Squirrel, Chaos Theory Games
Every Day We Fight · EA $29.99 385 72% 12k $346k (exactly $346,384) Signal Space Lab

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.