Do I ship it?

GamesStrategy RPGStrategy RPG + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + Magic

Of 186 developers who shipped a Magic Strategy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 302 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $400k, ×649 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 302 games are announced against 107 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 302 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 186
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $5.9k → $2.9k → $3.2k → $3.2k → $4.8k → $1.1k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 186
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,728)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $20,990)
Top 5% $408k (exactly $407,796)
Developers, 2 yr 186
Released games 491
Announced 302
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 34,017 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $400k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 93 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 302 games are announced against 107 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Marvel's Midnight Suns older $59.99 17,060 82% 512k $31M (exactly $30,702,882) Firaxis Games
Songs of Conquest older $29.99 12,127 85% 364k $11M (exactly $10,910,662) Lavapotion
FINAL FANTASY TACTICS - The Ivalice Chronicles $49.99 5,673 89% 170k $8.5M (exactly $8,507,798) Square Enix
Magicraft $15.99 15,051 92% 452k $7.2M (exactly $7,219,965) Wave Games
Inkbound older $29.99 3,592 86% 108k $3.2M (exactly $3,231,722) Shiny Shoe
Lessaria: Fantasy Kingdom Sim $24.90 2,938 77% 88k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,686) Rockbee Team
Age of Reforging: The Freelands $29.99 2,291 71% 69k $2.1M (exactly $2,061,213) PersonaeGame Studio
SpellForce: Conquest of Eo older $29.99 2,149 80% 64k $1.9M (exactly $1,933,455) Owned by Gravity
Disgaea 7: Vows of the Virtueless older $59.99 913 74% 27k $1.6M (exactly $1,643,126) Nippon Ichi Software, Inc., Systemsoft… (Nippon Ichi Software, Inc., Systemsoft beta, Inc.)
Erenshor · EA $19.99 2,153 94% 65k $1.3M (exactly $1,291,154) Burgee Media
Dark Deity 2 $24.99 1,583 89% 47k $1.2M (exactly $1,186,775) Sword & Axe LLC
Dwarves: Glory, Death and Loot $14.99 2,588 82% 78k $1.2M (exactly $1,163,824) Hamma Studios
Fantasy Maiden Wars - DREAM OF THE STRAY DREAMER - $34.99 582 98% 17k $611k (exactly $610,925) さんぼん堂
Elemental: Reforged $29.99 478 73% 14k $430k (exactly $430,057) Stardock Entertainment
Crown of Greed $19.99 680 60% 20k $408k (exactly $407,796) BLUM Entertainment

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.