Do I ship it?

GamesStrategy RPGStrategy RPG + Psychological Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological-Horror Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + Psychological Horror

Of 30 developers who shipped a Psychological-Horror Strategy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×4.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $530k, ×859 the market median. Revenue is up 245% on the market; 42 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 245% on the market, 42 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Psychological Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $182k → $1.7k → $179 → $2.5k → $9.0k → $300 (still earning) → $4.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Psychological Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,507)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $20,990)
Top 5% $539k (exactly $539,460)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 69
Announced 42
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 245% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Psychological Horror
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 5,395 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $530k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Karryn's Prison older $29.99 4,414 95% 132k $4.0M (exactly $3,971,276) Remtairy
Reverse Collapse: Code Name Bakery older $24.99 4,861 78% 146k $3.6M (exactly $3,644,292) Shanghai Sunborn Network Technology Co.… (Shanghai Sunborn Network Technology Co., Ltd.)
Breakout 13 older $9.99 6,899 87% 207k $2.1M (exactly $2,067,630) ALT Lab
Fuga: Melodies of Steel older $39.99 1,181 93% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,416,846) CyberConnect2
Warhammer Quest (Classic) older $29.99 897 71% 27k $807k (exactly $807,031) Rodeo Games, Twistplay
Out Of Hands $17.99 1,322 93% 40k $713k (exactly $713,483) Game River
Sinister Night 2 $9.99 1,800 86% 54k $539k (exactly $539,460) Bug Inventors
Fuga: Melodies of Steel 2 older $39.99 360 96% 11k $432k (exactly $431,892) CyberConnect2
Q-UP $9.99 1,126 93% 34k $337k (exactly $337,462) Everybody House Games
The Fabulous Fear Machine older $17.99 542 89% 16k $293k (exactly $292,517) Fictiorama Studios
Fuga: Melodies of Steel 3 $39.99 220 89% 6.6k $264k (exactly $263,934) CyberConnect2
Nightmare Frontier $24.99 187 69% 5.6k $140k (exactly $140,194) Ice Code Games
Paper Bride 6 Nightmare $9.99 369 81% 11k $111k (exactly $110,589) HeartBeat Plus
Exorcism Agency $12.99 222 91% 6.7k $87k (exactly $86,513) YINGGUO GAME
Mercenaries Lament: Requiem of the Silver Wolf $19.99 35 42% 1.1k $21k (exactly $20,990) ESQUADRA,inc., RideonJapan
RECORD_DrowsyVortex $9.99 54 100% 1.6k $16k (exactly $16,184) LunarHillz
Who's Hungry? $4.99 60 100% 1.8k $9.0k (exactly $8,982) Daniel Fernández

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.