Do I ship it?

GamesStrategy RPGStrategy RPG + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + Nature

Of 30 developers who shipped a Nature Strategy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 49 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $240 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 16 developers shipped in the last year and 49 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 49 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $390 → $359 → $150 → $599 → $1.1k (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $1.1k (exactly $1,139)
Top 5% $35k (exactly $35,365)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 67
Announced 49
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Exploration, Management
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 604 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $300, 1 in 4 over $1.1k, 1 in 20 over $35k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 49 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Utawarerumono: Prelude to the Fallen older $59.99 1,328 93% 40k $2.4M (exactly $2,390,002) AQUAPLUS
Monochrome Mobius: Rights and Wrongs Forgotten older $59.99 759 80% 23k $1.4M (exactly $1,365,972) AQUAPLUS
Utawarerumono: Past and Present Rediscovered $59.99 289 83% 8.7k $520k (exactly $520,113) AQUAPLUS
Winter · EA older $29.99 340 73% 10k $306k (exactly $305,898) Frostfall Realms Studios
Tenderfoot Tactics older $14.99 220 81% 6.6k $99k (exactly $98,934) Kevin Maxon, Michael Bell, Isa Hutchins… (Kevin Maxon, Michael Bell, Isa Hutchinson, Taylor Thomas, Zoe Vartanian, Madison Pathe)
Sons Of The Dream Forest · EA older $4.99 318 9% 9.5k $48k (exactly $47,605) SimulatorLife
Duck Life: Retro Pack older $5.99 242 83% 7.3k $43k (exactly $43,487) Wix Games
Chrysalis $9.99 118 84% 3.5k $35k (exactly $35,365) Metamorph Games
The Headlands · EA $10.99 107 97% 3.2k $35k (exactly $35,278) TessaraOxygen
Beastie Bay DX older $8.99 98 70% 2.9k $26k (exactly $26,431) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
Atre: Dominance Wars · EA $24.99 34 67% 1.0k $25k (exactly $25,490) Ironward
Wild Script: Nature · EA $4.99 16 93% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,395) Surdarium
Rose Of Wind $10.99 7 57% 210 $2.3k (exactly $2,308) GSG Studio
Forest Factory Simulator $3.99 17 41% 510 $2.0k (exactly $2,035) Samle Indie Studio
Jini's Potion Shop · EA $18.99 2 100% 60 $1.1k (exactly $1,139) TEAMLAMP
Rise Of Transport · EA $2.99 10 60% 300 $897 (exactly $897) Softdimension Games
I Am The Registered Environmental Engineer $6.99 4 100% 120 $839 (exactly $839) LULEYAN

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.