Do I ship it?

Games › Strategy RPG › Strategy RPG + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + Mystery

Of 53 developers who shipped a Mystery Strategy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 98 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $89; 1 in 20 cleared $550k, ×888 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 98 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 98 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 53
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $1.7k → $360 → $4.3k → $11k → $5.8k → $150 (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 53
Bottom 30% $89 (exactly $89)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,194)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $17,391)
Top 5% $557k (exactly $557,442)
Developers, 2 yr 53
Released games 144
Announced 98
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.39

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Multiple Endings
Price point
$7.39 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Cinematic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.39.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 61,981 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $89, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $550k.

3 in 10 developers made under $89. 7 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 98 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Persona 3 Reload 2024 · $78M Revenge on gold diggers 2025 · $9.8M Tactical Breach Wizards 2024 · $6.9M Back to the Dawn 2025 · $6.2M Digimon Survive 2022 · $5.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Persona 3 Reload older $59.99 43,497 95% 1.3M $78M (exactly $78,281,551) ATLUS
Revenge on gold diggers $6.99 46,610 80% 1.4M $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) 前方工作室
Tactical Breach Wizards older $19.99 11,485 97% 345k $6.9M (exactly $6,887,554) Suspicious Developments
Back to the Dawn $23.99 8,555 94% 257k $6.2M (exactly $6,157,034) Metal Head Games
Digimon Survive older $59.99 3,124 78% 94k $5.6M (exactly $5,622,263) HYDE, Inc.
Town of Salem older $4.99 30,882 88% 926k $4.6M (exactly $4,623,035) BlankMediaGames
Reverse Collapse: Code Name Bakery older $24.99 4,861 78% 146k $3.6M (exactly $3,644,292) Shanghai Sunborn Network Technology Co.… (Shanghai Sunborn Network Technology Co., Ltd.)
Depersonalization older $19.99 6,041 92% 181k $3.6M (exactly $3,622,788) MeowNature
Obenseuer · EA older $19.99 1,684 94% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,009,895) Loiste Interactive
极速营救 $9.99 1,860 86% 56k $557k (exactly $557,442) 优映文化, 想象颗粒
Sinister Night 2 $9.99 1,800 86% 54k $539k (exactly $539,460) Bug Inventors
我打不过漂亮的她们 $10.99 1,111 95% 33k $366k (exactly $366,297) 想象颗粒
消失的航班，还有她她她！Lost in the secret! $19.99 602 89% 18k $361k (exactly $361,019) Humongous Pictures
The Succession of Changing Kings $9.99 487 86% 15k $146k (exactly $145,954) KwaKwaGames
晨昏线 $9.99 427 76% 13k $128k (exactly $127,972) Enter Games
Paper Bride 6 Nightmare $9.99 369 81% 11k $111k (exactly $110,589) HeartBeat Plus
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Tactical Takedown $19.99 160 89% 4.8k $96k (exactly $95,952) Strange Scaffold

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.