Do I ship it?

GamesStrategy RPGStrategy RPG + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + Dystopian

Only 13 developers shipped a Dystopian Strategy RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Q-UP, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 58 more are announced, ×6.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×8.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×537 the market median. Revenue is up 770% on the market; 58 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 770% on the market, 58 announced, ×6.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $300 → $449 → $52k → $1.2k → $5.7k → $9.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,158)
Median $5.4k (exactly $5,396)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $17,800)
Top 5% $337k (exactly $337,462)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 48
Announced 58
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 770% on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, CRPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 1,499 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $5.4k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $330k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 58 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Shin Megami Tensei III Nocturne HD Remaster older $49.99 3,989 87% 120k $6.0M (exactly $5,982,303) ATLUS
Obenseuer · EA older $19.99 1,684 94% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,009,895) Loiste Interactive
Capes older $39.99 446 67% 13k $535k (exactly $535,066) Spitfire Interactive
Q-UP $9.99 1,126 93% 34k $337k (exactly $337,462) Everybody House Games
Black & White older $14.99 612 71% 18k $275k (exactly $275,216) 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame)
Mary Skelter Finale older $49.99 118 70% 3.5k $177k (exactly $176,965) Compile Heart, Idea Factory, Ghostlight… (Compile Heart, Idea Factory, Ghostlight LTD)
This Is the President older $14.99 359 67% 11k $161k (exactly $161,442) SuperPAC
EVOTINCTION older $29.99 173 86% 5.2k $156k (exactly $155,648) Spikewave Games
Vigilantes older $14.99 276 80% 8.3k $124k (exactly $124,117) Timeslip Softworks
Moves Of The Diamond Hand · EA $19.99 105 100% 3.2k $63k (exactly $62,968) Cosmo D Studios
Tarnished Blood 🩸 [Tactic RPG] · EA $19.99 87 88% 2.6k $52k (exactly $52,174) Juggler Games, Nakayama Games
Joy Malignant $8.99 66 100% 2.0k $18k (exactly $17,800) Petros Anastasiadis
Statecraft: Corrupted Democracy $9.99 33 90% 990 $9.9k (exactly $9,890) Engincan Çiçek, Bad Engine Studio
Egglets - The Long 10 Days $8.99 21 100% 630 $5.7k (exactly $5,664) wieLuft
Hostile Takeover $11.99 15 93% 450 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) Whispering Spider Games
Meridian $9.99 4 100% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Turn Based Hedgehog
Voyna $12.99 3 100% 90 $1.2k (exactly $1,169) HellYeah!
Rise of the Successor $0.99 39 87% 1.2k $1.2k (exactly $1,158) Studio Six

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.