Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon game?

Dragons

Of 334 developers who shipped a Dragon game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 555 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×2.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $430k, ×685 the market median. Revenue is up 120% on the market; 555 games are announced against 191 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 120% on the market, 555 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 334
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.9k → $1.3k → $1.9k → $897 → $1.8k → $1.9k → $1.2k (still earning) → $2.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 334
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,704)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,028)
Top 5% $430k (exactly $430,057)
Developers, 2 yr 334
Released games 1,121
Announced 555
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 120% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 68% positive over 443,285 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $430k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 173 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 555 games are announced against 191 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Dragons

89 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Idler + Dragons Poor odds $1.8k 22 devs
  2. Resource Management + Dragons Poor odds $1.8k 12 devs
  3. Card Game + Dragons Poor odds $1.7k 26 devs
  4. Card Battler + Dragons Poor odds $1.7k 24 devs
  5. Roguelike + Dragons Poor odds $1.7k 49 devs
  6. Hack and Slash + Dragons Poor odds $1.7k 34 devs
  7. Bullet Hell + Dragons Poor odds $1.7k 18 devs
  8. RPG + Dragons Poor odds $1.5k 158 devs
  9. Action + Dragons Poor odds $1.5k 128 devs
  10. Point & Click + Dragons Poor odds $1.4k 26 devs
  11. Visual Novel + Dragons Poor odds $1.4k 38 devs
  12. Puzzle + Dragons Poor odds $1.3k 38 devs
  13. Combat + Dragons Poor odds $1.2k 57 devs
  14. Mystery Dungeon + Dragons Poor odds $1.2k 8 devs
  15. Turn-Based Tactics + Dragons Poor odds $1.2k 42 devs
  16. Tactical RPG + Dragons Poor odds $1.2k 25 devs
  17. Action Roguelike + Dragons Poor odds $899 29 devs
  18. Dating Sim + Dragons Poor odds $899 27 devs
  19. Swordplay + Dragons Poor odds $897 21 devs
  20. Hidden Object + Dragons Poor odds $809 20 devs
  21. Survival + Dragons Poor odds $718 16 devs
  22. Incremental + Dragons Poor odds $683 21 devs
  23. Action-Adventure + Dragons Poor odds $628 60 devs
  24. Flight + Dragons Poor odds $539 11 devs
  25. Souls-like + Dragons Poor odds $450 15 devs
  26. FPS + Dragons Poor odds $419 12 devs
  27. MMORPG + Dragons Dead $144k 2 devs
  28. Wargame + Dragons Dead $6.6k 8 devs
  29. Walking Simulator + Dragons Dead $6.0k 4 devs
  30. Grid-Based Movement + Dragons Dead $2.5k 8 devs
  31. Puzzle Platformer + Dragons Dead $1.9k 5 devs
  32. Metroidvania + Dragons Dead $1.8k 4 devs
  33. Archery + Dragons Dead $1.2k 5 devs
  34. 2D Platformer + Dragons Dead $450 43 devs
  35. Shooter + Dragons Dead $419 20 devs
  36. Shoot 'Em Up + Dragons Dead $300 14 devs
  37. Interactive Fiction + Dragons Dead $299 23 devs
  38. Trading Card Game + Dragons Dead $270 6 devs
  39. Beat 'em up + Dragons Dead $150 10 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

ARK: Survival Evolved 2017 · $264M The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition 2016 · $263M Crimson Desert Enhanced 2026 · $242M Monster Hunter Wilds 2025 · $241M MONSTER HUNTER RISE 2022 · $96M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ARK: Survival Evolved older $14.99 586,768 83% 18M $264M (exactly $263,869,570) Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto… (Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto Studios, Virtual Basement LLC)
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition older $39.99 219,271 94% 6.6M $263M (exactly $263,059,419) Bethesda Game Studios
Crimson Desert Enhanced $69.99 115,056 83% 3.5M $242M (exactly $241,583,083) Pearl Abyss
Monster Hunter Wilds $39.99 200,984 52% 6.0M $241M (exactly $241,120,505) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
MONSTER HUNTER RISE older $39.99 79,847 84% 2.4M $96M (exactly $95,792,446) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Dragon's Dogma 2 older $39.99 76,627 62% 2.3M $92M (exactly $91,929,412) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard $59.99 41,393 67% 1.2M $74M (exactly $74,494,982) BioWare
Granblue Fantasy: Relink older $39.99 41,227 89% 1.2M $49M (exactly $49,460,032) Cygames, Inc.
DOOM: The Dark Ages $49.99 32,209 88% 966k $48M (exactly $48,303,837) id Software
DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE older $64.98 17,554 89% 527k $34M (exactly $34,219,768) DIMPS
RuneScape: Dragonwilds $29.99 28,071 81% 842k $25M (exactly $25,255,479) Jagex Ltd
Monster Hunter Stories 3: Twisted Reflection $69.99 5,605 77% 168k $12M (exactly $11,768,818) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
DragonSword : Awakening $29.99 10,568 90% 317k $9.5M (exactly $9,508,030) Hound13 Inc.
Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma $59.99 2,947 88% 88k $5.3M (exactly $5,303,716) Marvelous Inc.
DRAGON QUEST VII Reimagined $59.99 2,138 88% 64k $3.8M (exactly $3,847,759) Square Enix, HEXADRIVE Inc.
Mind Over Magic $24.99 4,314 86% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,234,206) Sparkypants

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.