Do I ship it?

GamesRoguelikeRoguelike + Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon Roguelike?

Roguelike + Dragons

Of 49 developers who shipped a Dragon Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 77 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×2.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×234 the market median. Revenue is up 260% on the market; 77 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 260% on the market, 77 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 49
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $897 → $5.9k → $299 → $299 → $1.2k → $3.6k (still earning) → $13k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 49
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,672)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,323)
Top 5% $147k (exactly $147,052)
Developers, 2 yr 49
Released games 126
Announced 77
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 260% on the market, supply 150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Roguelike; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelite, Action
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 2,611 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 77 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
GetsuFumaDen: Undying Moon older $24.99 963 76% 29k $722k (exactly $721,961) KONAMI, GuruGuru
Slice & Dice older $8.99 2,484 96% 75k $670k (exactly $669,935) Tann
Munchkin Digital older $14.99 1,352 76% 41k $608k (exactly $607,994) Dire Wolf
Dragon Is Dead $19.99 661 75% 20k $396k (exactly $396,402) TeamSuneat
Mirror of Heaven older $9.25 995 79% 30k $276k (exactly $276,112) EnjoyPlay Ltd
Ruff Ghanor older $19.99 435 85% 13k $261k (exactly $260,869) DX Gameworks
Feed the Scorchpot $14.99 371 87% 11k $167k (exactly $166,839) Moravian
Batomon Showdown $14.99 327 87% 9.8k $147k (exactly $147,052) berrymint
Mage and Monsters older $4.99 903 89% 27k $135k (exactly $135,179) Lasse Zacho Malver
The Awakener: Forgotten Oath older $16.99 212 71% 6.4k $108k (exactly $108,056) TANER GAMES
Circle Empires 2 $12.99 266 72% 8.0k $104k (exactly $103,660) Luminous
Mage and Monsters II $8.99 372 82% 11k $100k (exactly $100,328) Lasse Zacho Malver
Struggle F.O $8.80 243 67% 7.3k $64k (exactly $64,152) Espada Inc.
Swords And Magic: Path Of Conquest · EA $9.99 128 77% 3.8k $38k (exactly $38,362) ShadowMoon Wolf Game Tech Ltd
Dragon Front: Adventures $19.99 58 89% 1.7k $35k (exactly $34,783) High Voltage Software, Inc.
Sunbreak War $8.99 122 81% 3.7k $33k (exactly $32,903) Candlelight Studio
My Infamous Dungeon $14.99 63 76% 1.9k $28k (exactly $28,331) BoxFox Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.