Do I ship it?

GamesArcheryArchery + Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon Archery game?

Archery + Dragons

Only 5 developers shipped a Dragon Archery game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Mythrealm, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $1.2k against a market of $630. 19 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 19 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Archery + Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 5
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $300 → $5.4k → $4.1k
Outcomes for Archery + Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 5
Bottom 30% $750 (exactly $750)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $4.1k (exactly $4,075)
Top 5% $15k (exactly $14,840)
Developers, 2 yr 5
Released games 33
Announced 19
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 300% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Archery
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Archery
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 4,109 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $750, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $4.0k, 1 in 20 over $14k.

3 in 10 developers made under $750. 19 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Archery with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Top-Down ShooterFair9 devs · median $359 · 11 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds13 devs · median $6.5k · 19 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashPoor odds18 devs · median $4.1k · 42 announced
  4. + HistoricalPoor odds11 devs · median $2.7k · 20 announced
  5. + RPGPoor odds28 devs · median $2.4k · 96 announced
  6. + PlatformerPoor odds13 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  7. + HuntingPoor odds9 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  8. + NaturePoor odds11 devs · median $1.8k · 36 announced
  9. + Action RPGPoor odds19 devs · median $1.5k · 58 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds15 devs · median $1.5k · 47 announced
  11. + RoguelikePoor odds13 devs · median $1.0k · 25 announced
  12. + AdventurePoor odds52 devs · median $898 · 123 announced

All 46 pairs on the Archery page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Northern Journey older $11.99 3,500 96% 105k $1.3M (exactly $1,258,950) Slid Studio
Epic Fantasy Battle Simulator · EA older $9.99 426 84% 13k $128k (exactly $127,672) Mutiny Software
Mythrealm · EA $14.99 33 87% 990 $15k (exactly $14,840) Delta Video Games
Tales of Sintra: The Dark Vortex older $14.99 23 73% 690 $10k (exactly $10,343) Ippo Games
Behold Battle older $3.99 58 82% 1.7k $6.9k (exactly $6,943) Lasse Zacho Malver
Crystal Riders VR older $14.99 12 100% 360 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) Nikola Grunchevski
Blood of the Elves · EA older $14.99 12 66% 360 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) Naxion Games Interactive
4 Kingdoms Supremacy · EA older $9.99 17 76% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) PiggyNose Games
Breath of Spirits older $14.99 11 63% 330 $4.9k (exactly $4,947) gz.inc
Heart of Eternity $7.99 17 76% 510 $4.1k (exactly $4,075) Ukrainian Development Company
FIRE The First Dreamer $19.99 2 0% 60 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) SIC Games
Knights of the Apocalypse $24.99 1 100% 30 $750 (exactly $750) Sirius Morning Star
Call of Heroes: Tower Defense $14.99 1 0% 30 $450 (exactly $450) Bakart Games - Rômulo

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.