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Should I ship a Dragon Swordplay game?
Swordplay + Dragons
Of 21 developers who shipped a Dragon Swordplay game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 43 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×325 the market median. Revenue is up 1070% on the market; 43 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $897 (exactly $897) |
| Top 25% | $15k (exactly $15,098) |
| Top 5% | $204k (exactly $204,232) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 21 |
| Released games | 76 |
| Announced | 43 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1070% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Swordplay; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Action RPG
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Anime
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 76% positive over 1,194 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 43 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Swordplay with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Visual NovelFair
- + Strategy RPGFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + DeckbuildingFair
- + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + JRPGPoor odds
- + Female ProtagonistPoor odds
- + FightingPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
Comparable games
Dragon's Dogma 2 2024 · $92M 
Granblue Fantasy: Relink 2024 · $49M 
ASTLIBRA Revision 2022 · $23M 
Driftland: The Magic Revival 2019 · $863k 
GetsuFumaDen: Undying Moon 2022 · $722k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Dragon's Dogma 2 | older | $39.99 | 76,627 62% | 2.3M | $92M (exactly $91,929,412) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
| | Granblue Fantasy: Relink | older | $39.99 | 41,227 89% | 1.2M | $49M (exactly $49,460,032) | Cygames, Inc. |
| | ASTLIBRA Revision | older | $24.99 | 30,262 95% | 908k | $23M (exactly $22,687,421) | KEIZO |
| | Driftland: The Magic Revival | older | $19.99 | 1,439 73% | 43k | $863k (exactly $862,968) | Star Drifters |
| | GetsuFumaDen: Undying Moon | older | $24.99 | 963 76% | 29k | $722k (exactly $721,961) | KONAMI, GuruGuru |
 | Mirror of Heaven | older | $9.25 | 995 79% | 30k | $276k (exactly $276,112) | EnjoyPlay Ltd |
 | Ancient Kingdoms | · EA | $15.99 | 473 86% | 14k | $227k (exactly $226,898) | Ancient Pixels |
 | Talisman: Digital 5th Edition | $29.99 | 227 70% | 6.8k | $204k (exactly $204,232) | Nomad Games | |
 | XiuzhenWorld | older | $12.99 | 436 75% | 13k | $170k (exactly $169,909) | Noforgetit |
 | Epic Fantasy Battle Simulator | · EA older | $9.99 | 426 84% | 13k | $128k (exactly $127,672) | Mutiny Software |
 | Rise of Rebellion～地罰上らば竜の降る～ | $8.99 | 204 44% | 6.1k | $55k (exactly $55,019) | Team 疾鷹 | |
 | Adventure of Samsara | $19.99 | 66 89% | 2.0k | $40k (exactly $39,580) | Ilex Games | |
 | Dungeon Mori | $11.99 | 60 93% | 1.8k | $22k (exactly $21,582) | FilthyDrawings, Updog Software | |
 | Spellbound Beauties | $6.99 | 72 83% | 2.2k | $15k (exactly $15,098) | Lunar Kiss Games | |
 | Specters of the Deep | $11.99 | 34 91% | 1.0k | $12k (exactly $12,230) | Choice of Games | |
 | Aegis Force: The Scorian War | · EA | $24.99 | 14 71% | 420 | $10k (exactly $10,496) | Zenahive, Ellipsii |
 | Ecrazeus Castle | $4.99 | 39 84% | 1.2k | $5.8k (exactly $5,838) | Meringue Rouge | |
 | Duil | $11.99 | 5 80% | 150 | $1.8k (exactly $1,798) | JL studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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