Do I ship it?

GamesAction-AdventureAction-Adventure + Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon Action-Adventure?

Action-Adventure + Dragons

Of 60 developers who shipped a Dragon Action-Adventure in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 152 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $630, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×669 the market median. Revenue is up 185% on the market; 152 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 185% on the market, 152 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action-Adventure + Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 60
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $23k → $3.0k → $628 → $360 → $300 → $4.8k (still earning) → $718 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action-Adventure + Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 60
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $628 (exactly $628)
Top 25% $4.8k (exactly $4,795)
Top 5% $420k (exactly $420,390)
Developers, 2 yr 60
Released games 239
Announced 152
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 185% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action-Adventure
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Action-Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 127,960 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $630, 1 in 4 over $4.7k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 34 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 152 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action-Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair18 devs · median $6.7k · 19 announced
  3. + BikesFair11 devs · median $2.5k · 11 announced
  4. + TransportationFair21 devs · median $2.3k · 22 announced
  5. + MotorbikeFair9 devs · median $2.3k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingLong shot14 devs · median $360 · 16 announced
  7. + Time AttackLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 17 announced
  8. + Character Action GamePoor odds23 devs · median $58k · 93 announced
  9. + MMORPGPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 116 announced
  10. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds49 devs · median $25k · 133 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds81 devs · median $24k · 135 announced
  12. + Villain ProtagonistPoor odds12 devs · median $17k · 26 announced

All 242 pairs on the Action-Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Crimson Desert Enhanced $69.99 115,056 83% 3.5M $242M (exactly $241,583,083) Pearl Abyss
Dragon's Dogma 2 older $39.99 76,627 62% 2.3M $92M (exactly $91,929,412) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Lords of the Fallen older $29.99 37,902 68% 1.1M $34M (exactly $34,100,429) CI Games
WILD HEARTS™ older $69.99 10,626 48% 319k $22M (exactly $22,311,412) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
DragonSword : Awakening $29.99 10,568 90% 317k $9.5M (exactly $9,508,030) Hound13 Inc.
Immortals of Aveum™ older $59.99 2,794 71% 84k $5.0M (exactly $5,028,362) Ascendant Studios
Hammerwatch II older $24.99 1,871 60% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,402,689) Crackshell
Northern Journey older $11.99 3,500 96% 105k $1.3M (exactly $1,258,950) Slid Studio
Bō: Path of the Teal Lotus older $19.99 1,398 82% 42k $838k (exactly $838,381) Squid Shock Studios, Christopher Stair,… (Squid Shock Studios, Christopher Stair, Trevor Youngquist)
我在地球修仙有系统 older $14.99 959 70% 29k $431k (exactly $431,262) 红星
Huaxia: Warring States · EA $19.99 701 61% 21k $420k (exactly $420,390) 秦川汉渚
Ancient Kingdoms · EA $15.99 473 86% 14k $227k (exactly $226,898) Ancient Pixels
Soul's Chronicle: Immortal Slayer $14.99 441 77% 13k $198k (exactly $198,318) 正向星光工作室
Loot Tycoon · EA $6.99 544 71% 16k $114k (exactly $114,077) Parallel Portal
Adventure of Samsara $19.99 66 89% 2.0k $40k (exactly $39,580) Ilex Games
Pet Lands $14.99 47 46% 1.4k $21k (exactly $21,136) Tbjbu2, Adria Martinez Exposito
Mythrealm · EA $14.99 33 87% 990 $15k (exactly $14,840) Delta Video Games
10 seconds dash! $9.99 31 96% 930 $9.3k (exactly $9,291) メシードソフトウェア

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.