Do I ship it?

Games › Bullet Hell › Bullet Hell + Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon Bullet Hell?

Bullet Hell + Dragons

Only 18 developers shipped a Dragon Bullet Hell in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Struggle F.O, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×2.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $64k, ×102 the market median. Revenue is up 675% on the market; 23 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 675% on the market, 23 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Bullet Hell + Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $807 → $2.0k → $1.0k → $25k → $480 → $899 (still earning) → $13k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Bullet Hell + Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,672)
Top 25% $8.4k (exactly $8,383)
Top 5% $64k (exactly $64,152)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 50
Announced 23
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 675% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Bullet Hell
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Bullet Hell; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action Roguelike, RPG, Roguelite
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $8.80 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, Pixel Graphics, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $8.80 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 693 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $8.3k, 1 in 20 over $64k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 23 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Bullet Hell with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SuperheroStrong odds11 devs · median $3.4k · 7 announced
  2. + FaithFair26 devs · median $17k · 29 announced
  3. + VampiresFair43 devs · median $3.4k · 33 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair24 devs · median $3.4k · 33 announced
  5. + Strategy RPGFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  6. + PiratesFair14 devs · median $2.0k · 20 announced
  7. + CatsFair44 devs · median $1.7k · 59 announced
  8. + HackingFair15 devs · median $1.6k · 17 announced
  9. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $1.2k · 15 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair24 devs · median $1.2k · 22 announced
  11. + DemonsFair101 devs · median $1.2k · 125 announced
  12. + Naval CombatFair14 devs · median $1.1k · 16 announced

All 185 pairs on the Bullet Hell page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Pathfinder: Gallowspire Survivors 2024 · $117k Miss Kobayashi's Dragon Maid Burst Forth!! Choro-gon☆Breath DIRECTOR'S CUT 2022 · $104k Struggle F.O 2024 · $64k Black Dragon Mage 2024 · EA · $25k Hyper Echelon 2021 · $21k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Pathfinder: Gallowspire Survivors older $6.99 559 59% 17k $117k (exactly $117,222) BKOM Studios
Miss Kobayashi's Dragon Maid Burst Forth!! Choro-gon☆Breath DIRECTOR'S CUT older $29.99 116 89% 3.5k $104k (exactly $104,365) KAMINARI GAMES Inc.
Struggle F.O $8.80 243 67% 7.3k $64k (exactly $64,152) Espada Inc.
Black Dragon Mage · EA $5.99 140 70% 4.2k $25k (exactly $25,158) datablob
Hyper Echelon older $12.99 53 88% 1.6k $21k (exactly $20,654) GangoGames LLC
No Need for Flowers $14.99 41 100% 1.2k $18k (exactly $18,438) Amanda Konish
Interstellar Sentinel older $11.99 49 95% 1.5k $18k (exactly $17,625) Uplifting Goat LLC.
Abyss Horde $4.99 89 84% 2.7k $13k (exactly $13,323) Solo Gaming
Need a packet? older $13.99 27 51% 810 $11k (exactly $11,332) Marginal act
Draggin' $4.99 56 98% 1.7k $8.4k (exactly $8,383) Dragon Fractal Games
The Phoenix Gene VR $24.99 10 100% 300 $7.5k (exactly $7,497) HEROmation
Undead Tide: Light's Defense $1.99 70 75% 2.1k $4.2k (exactly $4,179) Crazy Studio
Dragon Dragon Fire Fire Deluxe $4.95 14 100% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,079) Zephyrix
OROBOROS $1.99 28 100% 840 $1.7k (exactly $1,672) Blay Games
Warlock Survivors $14.99 2 0% 60 $899 (exactly $899) XPHUNT

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.