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Should I ship a Dragon Incremental game?
Incremental + Dragons
Of 21 developers who shipped a Dragon Incremental game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $680, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $21k, ×34 the market median. Revenue is up 325% on the market; 27 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $683 (exactly $683) |
| Top 25% | $5.0k (exactly $5,034) |
| Top 5% | $21k (exactly $21,136) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 21 |
| Released games | 45 |
| Announced | 27 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 325% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Incremental
- effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables
- Dragons
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Incremental; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Idler, Adventure, Collectathon
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $6.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $6.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 73% positive over 861 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. All of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Incremental with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + OtomeStrong odds
- + Martial ArtsFair
- + FarmingFair
- + Dynamic NarrationFair
- + MiningFair
- + Souls-likeFair
- + Arena ShooterFair
- + Dating SimFair
- + UndergroundFair
- + LootFair
- + SupernaturalFair
Comparable games
Loot Tycoon 2026 · EA · $114k 
Gigapocalypse 2021 · $61k 
Pet Lands 2024 · $21k 
The Dragonhood 2024 · $20k 
Familiar Findings 2026 · $17k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Loot Tycoon | · EA | $6.99 | 544 71% | 16k | $114k (exactly $114,077) | Parallel Portal |
| | Gigapocalypse | older | $9.99 | 204 92% | 6.1k | $61k (exactly $61,139) | Goody Gameworks |
| | Pet Lands | $14.99 | 47 46% | 1.4k | $21k (exactly $21,136) | Tbjbu2, Adria Martinez Exposito | |
| | The Dragonhood | older | $7.99 | 83 73% | 2.5k | $20k (exactly $19,895) | Scrambled Games |
| | Familiar Findings | $5.99 | 94 96% | 2.8k | $17k (exactly $16,892) | Cliffa Games | |
 | Knock on Fate：The Guardian Pusher | $5.99 | 58 87% | 1.7k | $10k (exactly $10,423) | 刚正面的红领巾 | |
 | Now THAT'S a Big Dragon! | $6.99 | 47 70% | 1.4k | $9.9k (exactly $9,856) | Cotovelo Games | |
 | 100 hidden frogs 2 | older | $0.99 | 327 77% | 9.8k | $9.7k (exactly $9,712) | Anatoliy Loginovskikh |
 | Minimal Dungeon RPG | older | $5.99 | 45 46% | 1.4k | $8.1k (exactly $8,086) | CapPlay Interactive Inc. |
 | SEARCH ALL - ANIMALS | older | $2.99 | 87 73% | 2.6k | $7.8k (exactly $7,804) | Laush Dmitriy Sergeevich |
 | DungeonSweeper | $7.99 | 21 76% | 630 | $5.0k (exactly $5,034) | Smoketree Studios | |
 | Dragon Sprouts | $8.99 | 13 38% | 390 | $3.5k (exactly $3,506) | Cozy Fox Games | |
 | Hidden Heir | $4.99 | 21 66% | 630 | $3.1k (exactly $3,144) | AYS CODE YAZILIM | |
 | 易经·占卜 | $6.00 | 8 75% | 240 | $1.4k (exactly $1,440) | 三页先生 | |
 | DragonFire: Defense | · EA | $4.99 | 8 75% | 240 | $1.2k (exactly $1,198) | DodoModo |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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