Do I ship it?

GamesMMORPGMMORPG + Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon MMORPG?

MMORPG + Dragons

Only 2 developers shipped a paid Dragon MMORPG in the last 2 years. Over 4 years, 5 did: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 21 more are announced, ×21 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 10 / 10 build.

Only 1 developer shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $140k against a market of $1.3k. 21 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 106.9 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 21 announced, ×21 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
MMORPG + Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 4 yr n = 5

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for MMORPG + Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 4 yr, n = 5
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,248)
Top 5% $144k (exactly $143,928)
Developers, 4 yr 5
Released games 44
Announced 21
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 73%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

MMORPG
effort 10 / 10 · low · persistent world servers and a live economy
Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
MMORPG
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 4 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 68,110 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 4 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $2.2k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 2 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 1 developer who shipped in the last year, ×21 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

MMORPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootPoor odds8 devs · median $253k · 57 announced
  2. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $206k · 42 announced
  3. + SandboxPoor odds15 devs · median $144k · 107 announced
  4. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds10 devs · median $144k · 80 announced
  5. + CraftingPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  6. + MagicPoor odds11 devs · median $111k · 109 announced
  7. + Online Co-OpPoor odds15 devs · median $65k · 130 announced
  8. + FantasyPoor odds27 devs · median $61k · 232 announced
  9. + Class-BasedPoor odds7 devs · median $61k · 57 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds33 devs · median $52k · 252 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds28 devs · median $52k · 217 announced
  12. + ExplorationPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced

All 71 pairs on the MMORPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE 2 older $19.99 45,155 90% 1.4M $27M (exactly $27,079,453) QLOC, Dimps Corporation
Dark and Light · EA older $17.99 10,577 51% 317k $5.7M (exactly $5,708,407) Snail Games USA
Day of Dragons · EA older $19.99 6,278 68% 188k $3.8M (exactly $3,764,917) Beawesome Games
Citadel: Forged with Fire older $14.99 5,004 67% 150k $2.3M (exactly $2,250,299) Blue Isle Studios
Draconia · EA older $19.99 798 64% 24k $479k (exactly $478,561) Draconia Dev Team
Embers Adrift $19.99 240 69% 7.2k $144k (exactly $143,928) Stormhaven Studios
神徒 older $3.99 39 71% 1.2k $4.7k (exactly $4,668) 陈世杰
Paramount Hero · EA older $14.99 5 60% 150 $2.2k (exactly $2,248) Graham Darcey
Dragon's Hoard older $4.99 9 55% 270 $1.3k (exactly $1,347) Kreg
猎人修仙传 Hunter Immortal $7.99 5 20% 150 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) blues

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.