Do I ship it?

GamesTactical RPGTactical RPG + Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon Tactical RPG?

Tactical RPG + Dragons

Of 25 developers who shipped a Dragon Tactical RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×669 the market median. Revenue is up 1095% on the market; 40 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 1095% on the market, 40 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical RPG + Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $31k → $7.5k → $359 → $450 → $16k (still earning) → $10k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical RPG + Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,496)
Top 5% $420k (exactly $420,390)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 67
Announced 40
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1095% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 25%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tactical RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy RPG, Strategy, Choices Matter
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 5,622 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  3. + Space SimFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair21 devs · median $839 · 26 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair58 devs · median $599 · 49 announced
  6. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  7. + Colony SimPoor odds16 devs · median $41k · 29 announced
  8. + SandboxPoor odds42 devs · median $20k · 102 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds61 devs · median $18k · 81 announced
  10. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $17k · 27 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds23 devs · median $10k · 38 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds80 devs · median $8.7k · 143 announced

All 145 pairs on the Tactical RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mind Over Magic $24.99 4,314 86% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,234,206) Sparkypants
Fallen Enchantress: Legendary Heroes older $24.99 1,655 78% 50k $1.2M (exactly $1,240,754) Stardock Entertainment
Huaxia: Warring States · EA $19.99 701 61% 21k $420k (exactly $420,390) 秦川汉渚
VenusBlood HOLLOW International older $44.99 287 96% 8.6k $387k (exactly $387,364) Ninetail, Dualtail
BRIGANDINE ABYSS $49.99 248 35% 7.4k $372k (exactly $371,926) Adglobe
Crimson Tactics: The Rise of The White Banner older $29.99 245 46% 7.4k $220k (exactly $220,426) Black March Studios
Sorcerer King: Rivals older $19.99 255 65% 7.7k $153k (exactly $152,924) Stardock Entertainment
The Dragoness: Command of the Flame older $19.99 134 67% 4.0k $80k (exactly $80,360) Crazy Goat Games
Prophecy of Ashen $9.99 201 76% 6.0k $60k (exactly $60,240) hhyuGame
Tears of Adria older $13.99 75 86% 2.3k $31k (exactly $31,478) Ark Island Studio
Broken Alliance · EA $14.99 42 80% 1.3k $19k (exactly $18,887) Placeholder Gameworks
Auto Battle Girl $9.99 52 80% 1.6k $16k (exactly $15,584) Mutual Fun Studio
Aegis Force: The Scorian War · EA $24.99 14 71% 420 $10k (exactly $10,496) Zenahive, Ellipsii
龙与精灵 Dragons and elves $3.99 25 84% 750 $3.0k (exactly $2,992) AngelXiaoZ
Landonia · EA $4.99 17 94% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) Landonia RPG
Boundless AI Fantasy $9.99 8 87% 240 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) João Vitor Andrioli de Souza

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.