Do I ship it?

GamesCard GameCard Game + Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon Card Game?

Card Game + Dragons

Of 26 developers who shipped a Dragon Card Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 52 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×2.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $89; 1 in 20 cleared $370k, ×595 the market median. Revenue is up 1410% on the market; 52 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 1410% on the market, 52 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Card Game + Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 26
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $239 → $1.7k → $299 → $2.5k → $0 (still earning) → $13k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Card Game + Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 26
Bottom 30% $89 (exactly $89)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,678)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,587)
Top 5% $374k (exactly $373,817)
Developers, 2 yr 26
Released games 71
Announced 52
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1410% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 25%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Card Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data
Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Card Game; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Card Battler, Deckbuilding
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $22.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $22.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 2,305 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $89, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $370k.

3 in 10 developers made under $89. 8 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 52 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Card Game with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SteampunkFair15 devs · median $7.6k · 18 announced
  2. + Immersive SimFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 43 announced
  3. + Inventory ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.6k · 86 announced
  4. + DogsFair11 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  5. + MahjongFair28 devs · median $748 · 24 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair40 devs · median $719 · 54 announced
  7. + GamblingFair126 devs · median $600 · 167 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair62 devs · median $539 · 69 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair17 devs · median $537 · 15 announced
  10. + Board GameFair293 devs · median $479 · 382 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair198 devs · median $479 · 206 announced
  12. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $18k · 48 announced

All 159 pairs on the Card Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Munchkin Digital older $14.99 1,352 76% 41k $608k (exactly $607,994) Dire Wolf
None Shall Intrude $14.99 934 73% 28k $420k (exactly $420,020) Aeterna Ludi
Clank! $22.99 542 92% 16k $374k (exactly $373,817) Dire Wolf
Ruff Ghanor older $19.99 435 85% 13k $261k (exactly $260,869) DX Gameworks
Erannorth Chronicles older $20.99 407 85% 12k $256k (exactly $256,288) Spyridon Thalassinos
Mamon King $12.99 603 90% 18k $235k (exactly $234,989) LiTMUS Co., Ltd.
Kyvir: Rebirth · EA older $7.99 361 76% 11k $87k (exactly $86,532) Dawnblaze Entertainment
Dragon Front: Adventures $19.99 58 89% 1.7k $35k (exactly $34,783) High Voltage Software, Inc.
ARISEN - Chronicles of Var'Nagal · EA older $15.99 66 78% 2.0k $32k (exactly $31,660) Maratus, Homecoming Studio
Spellsword Cards: Origins older $9.99 60 60% 1.8k $18k (exactly $17,982) One Up Plus Entertainment
Ariokan™ - create your cards, break the Meta $29.99 18 94% 540 $16k (exactly $16,195) Fatum Games SL
Auto Battle Girl $9.99 52 80% 1.6k $16k (exactly $15,584) Mutual Fun Studio
Warena $9.99 42 52% 1.3k $13k (exactly $12,587) Part Time Monkey
King of Tokyo - Richard Garfield $19.99 16 68% 480 $9.6k (exactly $9,595) Breakfirst
Rustic Defense $9.99 28 96% 840 $8.4k (exactly $8,392) Lasot Interactive
Crouching Tiger Hidden Hanafuda $10.99 12 91% 360 $4.0k (exactly $3,956) Garuru Software labs inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.