Should I ship a Dragon RPG?
RPG + Dragons
Of 158 developers who shipped a Dragon RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 261 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2673 the market median. Revenue is up 260% on the market; 261 games are announced against 93 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $299 (exactly $299) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.5k (exactly $1,498) |
| Top 25% | $26k (exactly $26,422) |
| Top 5% | $1.7M (exactly $1,678,578) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 158 |
| Released games | 530 |
| Announced | 261 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 260% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Pixel Graphics
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 66% positive over 411,051 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 78 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 261 games are announced against 93 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
ARK: Survival Evolved 2017 · $264M 
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition 2016 · $263M 
Crimson Desert Enhanced 2026 · $242M 
Monster Hunter Wilds 2025 · $241M 
MONSTER HUNTER RISE 2022 · $96M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | ARK: Survival Evolved | older | $14.99 | 586,768 83% | 18M | $264M (exactly $263,869,570) | Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto… (Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto Studios, Virtual Basement LLC) |
| | The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition | older | $39.99 | 219,271 94% | 6.6M | $263M (exactly $263,059,419) | Bethesda Game Studios |
| | Crimson Desert Enhanced | $69.99 | 115,056 83% | 3.5M | $242M (exactly $241,583,083) | Pearl Abyss | |
| | Monster Hunter Wilds | $39.99 | 200,984 52% | 6.0M | $241M (exactly $241,120,505) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. | |
| | MONSTER HUNTER RISE | older | $39.99 | 79,847 84% | 2.4M | $96M (exactly $95,792,446) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
 | Dragon's Dogma 2 | older | $39.99 | 76,627 62% | 2.3M | $92M (exactly $91,929,412) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
 | Dragon Age™: The Veilguard | $59.99 | 41,393 67% | 1.2M | $74M (exactly $74,494,982) | BioWare | |
 | Granblue Fantasy: Relink | older | $39.99 | 41,227 89% | 1.2M | $49M (exactly $49,460,032) | Cygames, Inc. |
 | DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE | older | $64.98 | 17,554 89% | 527k | $34M (exactly $34,219,768) | DIMPS |
 | Lords of the Fallen | older | $29.99 | 37,902 68% | 1.1M | $34M (exactly $34,100,429) | CI Games |
 | RuneScape: Dragonwilds | $29.99 | 28,071 81% | 842k | $25M (exactly $25,255,479) | Jagex Ltd | |
 | Monster Hunter Stories 3: Twisted Reflection | $69.99 | 5,605 77% | 168k | $12M (exactly $11,768,818) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. | |
 | DragonSword : Awakening | $29.99 | 10,568 90% | 317k | $9.5M (exactly $9,508,030) | Hound13 Inc. | |
 | Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma | $59.99 | 2,947 88% | 88k | $5.3M (exactly $5,303,716) | Marvelous Inc. | |
 | DRAGON QUEST VII Reimagined | $59.99 | 2,138 88% | 64k | $3.8M (exactly $3,847,759) | Square Enix, HEXADRIVE Inc. | |
 | Dragonkin: The Banished | $24.99 | 2,239 72% | 67k | $1.7M (exactly $1,678,578) | Eko Software | |
 | The Nameless: Slay Dragon | $17.99 | 2,050 91% | 62k | $1.1M (exactly $1,106,385) | The Nameless Epic |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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