Do I ship it?

GamesShooterShooter + Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon Shooter?

Shooter + Dragons

Of 20 developers who shipped a Dragon Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $420 in the last 2 years and $420 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 7 developers shipped in the last year and 32 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 32 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $120 → $2.0k → $449 → $299 → $4.1k → $419 → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $419 (exactly $419)
Top 25% $7.5k (exactly $7,497)
Top 5% $48M (exactly $48,303,837)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 78
Announced 32
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 45% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Third-Person Shooter, Action RPG
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 32,478 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $420, 1 in 4 over $7.4k, 1 in 20 over $48M.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 9 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DOOM: The Dark Ages $49.99 32,209 88% 966k $48M (exactly $48,303,837) id Software
Far Cry 3 - Blood Dragon older $14.99 18,356 87% 551k $8.3M (exactly $8,254,693) Ubisoft Montreal
Shadow Warrior 3: Definitive Edition older $39.99 4,820 69% 145k $5.8M (exactly $5,782,554) Flying Wild Hog
Immortals of Aveum™ older $59.99 2,794 71% 84k $5.0M (exactly $5,028,362) Ascendant Studios
CastleMiner Z older $5.99 7,939 83% 238k $1.4M (exactly $1,426,638) DigitalDNA Games
Northern Journey older $11.99 3,500 96% 105k $1.3M (exactly $1,258,950) Slid Studio
SACRALITH : The Archer`s Tale older $19.99 256 84% 7.7k $154k (exactly $153,523) Odd Meter
Fire and Steel older $6.99 203 81% 6.1k $43k (exactly $42,569) Kreatin Studios
Ultimate Drummer $5.99 170 98% 5.1k $31k (exactly $30,549) Cool 3D World
DragonRideVR older $14.99 47 93% 1.4k $21k (exactly $21,136) TypeEh Studios
WarOfGods 2 $29.99 13 76% 390 $12k (exactly $11,696) Mensa World
Skyfear · EA $14.99 20 95% 600 $9.0k (exactly $8,994) Protoria Studios
The Phoenix Gene VR $24.99 10 100% 300 $7.5k (exactly $7,497) HEROmation
Catechumen $9.99 16 87% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) N'Lightning Software Development, Jorda… (N'Lightning Software Development, Jordan Freeman Group)
The Fortress of Dr. Radiaki - Fancy Edition $5.99 23 82% 690 $4.1k (exactly $4,133) Jordan Freeman Group, Future Visionary,… (Jordan Freeman Group, Future Visionary, Maelstorm Software)
Ominous Horizons: A Paladin's Calling $9.99 10 80% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) N'Lightning Software Development, Jorda… (N'Lightning Software Development, Jordan Freeman Group)
Dragons Reef VR $19.99 4 50% 120 $2.4k (exactly $2,399) Radoslaw Kutowinski
KABUKI FIRE $5.99 3 66% 90 $539 (exactly $539) Atmosphere Entertainment Studios Ltd.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.