Do I ship it?

Games › FPS › FPS + Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon FPS?

FPS + Dragons

Only 12 developers shipped a Dragon FPS in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, DOOM: The Dark Ages, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $420, ×0.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 20 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper, while revenue is down 80% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 20 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.4k → $150 → $4.1k
Outcomes for FPS + Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $419 (exactly $419)
Top 25% $4.1k (exactly $4,133)
Top 5% $48M (exactly $48,303,837)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 47
Announced 20
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 88% positive over 32,269 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $420, 1 in 4 over $4.1k, 1 in 20 over $48M.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

DOOM: The Dark Ages 2025 · $48M Far Cry 3 - Blood Dragon 2013 · $8.3M Shadow Warrior 3: Definitive Edition 2022 · $5.8M Immortals of Aveum™ 2023 · $5.0M CastleMiner Z 2014 · $1.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DOOM: The Dark Ages $49.99 32,209 88% 966k $48M (exactly $48,303,837) id Software
Far Cry 3 - Blood Dragon older $14.99 18,356 87% 551k $8.3M (exactly $8,254,693) Ubisoft Montreal
Shadow Warrior 3: Definitive Edition older $39.99 4,820 69% 145k $5.8M (exactly $5,782,554) Flying Wild Hog
Immortals of Aveum™ older $59.99 2,794 71% 84k $5.0M (exactly $5,028,362) Ascendant Studios
CastleMiner Z older $5.99 7,939 83% 238k $1.4M (exactly $1,426,638) DigitalDNA Games
Northern Journey older $11.99 3,500 96% 105k $1.3M (exactly $1,258,950) Slid Studio
Savage Lands older $3.99 4,173 56% 125k $500k (exactly $499,508) Last Bastion Studios LLC
Block Story™ older $4.99 1,944 85% 58k $291k (exactly $291,017) Big Cube Interactive, LLC
SACRALITH : The Archer`s Tale older $19.99 256 84% 7.7k $154k (exactly $153,523) Odd Meter
DragonRideVR older $14.99 47 93% 1.4k $21k (exactly $21,136) TypeEh Studios
Catechumen $9.99 16 87% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) N'Lightning Software Development, Jorda… (N'Lightning Software Development, Jordan Freeman Group)
The Fortress of Dr. Radiaki - Fancy Edition $5.99 23 82% 690 $4.1k (exactly $4,133) Jordan Freeman Group, Future Visionary,… (Jordan Freeman Group, Future Visionary, Maelstorm Software)
Ominous Horizons: A Paladin's Calling $9.99 10 80% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) N'Lightning Software Development, Jorda… (N'Lightning Software Development, Jordan Freeman Group)
Trek $9.99 5 80% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) JikanLimited
King Quest $15.99 2 0% 60 $959 (exactly $959) slc studios
Evil Siege $6.99 2 50% 60 $419 (exactly $419) MHD Homam AL Takrity, Munzer Mardini, H… (MHD Homam AL Takrity, Munzer Mardini, Hamza Bredy)
Dungeon Nights · EA $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) T9 Level
Last Gate $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Village Wind
Enosis $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Studio Platinwolf

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.