Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based TacticsTurn-Based Tactics + Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Dragons

Of 42 developers who shipped a Dragon Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 76 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $230k, ×374 the market median. Revenue is up 165% on the market; 76 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 165% on the market, 76 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 42
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $809 → $2.2k → $807 → $1.2k → $1.2k (still earning) → $10k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 42
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $6.3k (exactly $6,296)
Top 5% $235k (exactly $234,989)
Developers, 2 yr 42
Released games 116
Announced 76
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 165% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 67% positive over 43,097 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $6.2k, 1 in 20 over $230k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 76 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard $59.99 41,393 67% 1.2M $74M (exactly $74,494,982) BioWare
Brigandine The Legend of Runersia older $39.99 1,331 85% 40k $1.6M (exactly $1,596,801) Happinet, Matrix
DRAGON QUEST MONSTERS: The Dark Prince older $39.99 1,158 71% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,389,253) Square Enix
Fallen Enchantress: Legendary Heroes older $24.99 1,655 78% 50k $1.2M (exactly $1,240,754) Stardock Entertainment
Slice & Dice older $8.99 2,484 96% 75k $670k (exactly $669,935) Tann
Dragon Star Varnir older $39.99 453 78% 14k $543k (exactly $543,464) Idea Factory, Compile Heart
VenusBlood HOLLOW International older $44.99 287 96% 8.6k $387k (exactly $387,364) Ninetail, Dualtail
BRIGANDINE ABYSS $49.99 248 35% 7.4k $372k (exactly $371,926) Adglobe
Erannorth Chronicles older $20.99 407 85% 12k $256k (exactly $256,288) Spyridon Thalassinos
Mamon King $12.99 603 90% 18k $235k (exactly $234,989) LiTMUS Co., Ltd.
Dark Quest 4 $19.99 136 75% 4.1k $82k (exactly $81,559) Brain Seal Ltd
Gargadusa's Tower $8.99 294 90% 8.8k $79k (exactly $79,292) The Math Team
Prophecy of Ashen $9.99 201 76% 6.0k $60k (exactly $60,240) hhyuGame
Three Kingdoms Heroes $6.99 126 81% 3.8k $26k (exactly $26,422) 青衣工作室
Broken Alliance · EA $14.99 42 80% 1.3k $19k (exactly $18,887) Placeholder Gameworks
Lunars · EA $14.99 40 97% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,988) Anubis Arts
Aegis Force: The Scorian War · EA $24.99 14 71% 420 $10k (exactly $10,496) Zenahive, Ellipsii

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.