Do I ship it?

GamesShoot 'Em UpShoot 'Em Up + Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon Shoot 'Em Up?

Shoot 'Em Up + Dragons

Only 14 developers shipped a Dragon Shoot 'Em Up in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, No Need for Flowers, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 10 developers shipped in the last year and 14 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 14 announced, ×1.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shoot 'Em Up + Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Shoot 'Em Up + Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $7.5k (exactly $7,497)
Top 5% $18k (exactly $18,438)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 35
Announced 14
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Shoot 'Em Up
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 184 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $300, 1 in 4 over $7.4k, 1 in 20 over $18k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 14 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shoot 'Em Up with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FaithFair13 devs · median $17k · 13 announced
  2. + RomanceFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  4. + Quick-Time EventsFair8 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair39 devs · median $628 · 36 announced
  6. + IdlerFair36 devs · median $628 · 14 announced
  7. + Tower DefenseFair70 devs · median $599 · 54 announced
  8. + Resource ManagementFair26 devs · median $599 · 34 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair749 devs · median $419 · 783 announced
  10. + SwordplayLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  11. + MusicPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 12 announced
  12. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $8.1k · 20 announced

All 169 pairs on the Shoot 'Em Up page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Panzer Dragoon: Remake older $24.99 862 78% 26k $646k (exactly $646,241) MegaPixel Studio S. A.
Holodance older $19.99 201 85% 6.0k $121k (exactly $120,540) narayana games UG
Miss Kobayashi's Dragon Maid Burst Forth!! Choro-gon☆Breath DIRECTOR'S CUT older $29.99 116 89% 3.5k $104k (exactly $104,365) KAMINARI GAMES Inc.
DRAGON: A Game About a Dragon older $4.99 497 69% 15k $74k (exactly $74,401) Games With Dragons In
Hyper Echelon older $12.99 53 88% 1.6k $21k (exactly $20,654) GangoGames LLC
No Need for Flowers $14.99 41 100% 1.2k $18k (exactly $18,438) Amanda Konish
Interstellar Sentinel older $11.99 49 95% 1.5k $18k (exactly $17,625) Uplifting Goat LLC.
Abyss Horde $4.99 89 84% 2.7k $13k (exactly $13,323) Solo Gaming
Skyfear · EA $14.99 20 95% 600 $9.0k (exactly $8,994) Protoria Studios
The Phoenix Gene VR $24.99 10 100% 300 $7.5k (exactly $7,497) HEROmation
Dragon Dragon Fire Fire Deluxe $4.95 14 100% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,079) Zephyrix
KABUKI FIRE $5.99 3 66% 90 $539 (exactly $539) Atmosphere Entertainment Studios Ltd.
Through Blood and Dragons - Dragon Wars $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Dream Foundry Games
Star Witch $4.99 2 0% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Frozen Dungeon
Astraea $4.99 2 50% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Vizabee Games
Monster And Continent $2.99 2 0% 60 $179 (exactly $179) lupengzhan

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.