Do I ship it?

Games › Dating Sim › Dating Sim + Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon Dating Sim?

Dating Sim + Dragons

Of 27 developers who shipped a Dragon Dating Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90; 1 in 20 cleared $5.3M, ×8445 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 22 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 22 announced, ×1.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dating Sim + Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $131k → $1.4k → $5.3M → $4.9k → $90 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Dating Sim + Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $5.1k (exactly $5,090)
Top 5% $5.3M (exactly $5,303,716)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 57
Announced 22
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 185% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Dating Sim; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Character Customization, Action, Action RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 53% positive over 207,620 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $900, 1 in 4 over $5.0k, 1 in 20 over $5.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 22 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Dating Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WarStrong odds8 devs · median $100k · 3 announced
  2. + FMVStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  3. + Souls-likeStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  4. + AliensStrong odds20 devs · median $6.7k · 15 announced
  5. + PlatformerStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  6. + HistoricalFair39 devs · median $27k · 44 announced
  7. + FPSFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  8. + Post-apocalypticFair29 devs · median $15k · 34 announced
  9. + Quick-Time EventsFair17 devs · median $15k · 16 announced
  10. + Immersive SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  11. + Action-AdventureFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  12. + TacticalFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced

All 142 pairs on the Dating Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Monster Hunter Wilds 2025 · $241M Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma 2025 · $5.3M Divinity: Dragon Commander 2013 · $2.4M Drag'n Wash 2026 · $1.3M Shining Resonance Refrain 2018 · $835k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Monster Hunter Wilds $39.99 200,984 52% 6.0M $241M (exactly $241,120,505) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma $59.99 2,947 88% 88k $5.3M (exactly $5,303,716) Marvelous Inc.
Divinity: Dragon Commander older $39.99 1,976 73% 59k $2.4M (exactly $2,370,607) Larian Studios
Drag'n Wash $14.99 2,880 96% 86k $1.3M (exactly $1,295,136) Gator Dragon Games
Shining Resonance Refrain older $29.99 928 72% 28k $835k (exactly $834,922) SEGA
Anthro Heat $29.99 629 92% 19k $566k (exactly $565,911) Blue Lizard Studios
Ravager · EA older $19.99 909 93% 27k $545k (exactly $545,127) 4MinuteWarning
Angels with Scaly Wings™ / 鱗羽の天使 older $9.99 1,533 96% 46k $459k (exactly $459,440) Radical Phi
Sex and the Furry Titty older $6.99 996 90% 30k $209k (exactly $208,861) Furlough Games
Changeling Tale older $19.99 218 98% 6.5k $131k (exactly $130,735) Helmet Fox
Spellbound Beauties $6.99 72 83% 2.2k $15k (exactly $15,098) Lunar Kiss Games
Love the Guard, Be the King - A Visual Novel $7.99 27 100% 810 $6.5k (exactly $6,472) Ligia Nunes
Furry Necromancer 💀 $4.99 34 94% 1.0k $5.1k (exactly $5,090) Dirty Fox Games
Three Weeks On The Atlantic $4.99 33 96% 990 $4.9k (exactly $4,940) Crimson Dragon Studio
Daughters of the Dragon · EA $9.99 10 40% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Lewd Raccoon Games
Ravager - Moon-Friendly Edition · EA $19.99 4 100% 120 $2.4k (exactly $2,399) 4MinuteWarning

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.