Do I ship it?

GamesInteractive FictionInteractive Fiction + Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon Interactive Fiction?

Interactive Fiction + Dragons

Of 23 developers who shipped a Dragon Interactive Fiction in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $390 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 16 developers shipped in the last year and 29 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 29 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Interactive Fiction + Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $478 → $300 → $1.3k → $1.7k → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Interactive Fiction + Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,246)
Top 5% $39k (exactly $39,124)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 59
Announced 29
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Interactive Fiction
effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine
Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Interactive Fiction; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Multiple Endings, Point & Click
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Hand-drawn
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 761 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $300, 1 in 4 over $2.2k, 1 in 20 over $39k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Interactive Fiction with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVFair164 devs · median $36k · 162 announced
  2. + Match 3Fair12 devs · median $4.8k · 7 announced
  3. + VampiresFair41 devs · median $1.8k · 52 announced
  4. + SportsFair19 devs · median $1.5k · 19 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair160 devs · median $1.4k · 144 announced
  6. + PiratesFair7 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  7. + DrivingFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  8. + DiplomacyFair12 devs · median $1.0k · 17 announced
  9. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  10. + Board GameFair9 devs · median $657 · 12 announced
  11. + SnowFair10 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  12. + BuildingFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced

All 169 pairs on the Interactive Fiction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Storyteller older $14.99 8,169 88% 245k $3.7M (exactly $3,673,599) Daniel Benmergui
Amerzone - The Explorer's Legacy $39.99 526 90% 16k $631k (exactly $631,042) Microids Studio Paris
Eden's Ritter - Paladins of Ecstasy older $29.99 138 84% 4.1k $124k (exactly $124,159) Waffle
Six Legends $14.99 87 100% 2.6k $39k (exactly $39,124) Vincent Paquin
ARISEN - Chronicles of Var'Nagal · EA older $15.99 66 78% 2.0k $32k (exactly $31,660) Maratus, Homecoming Studio
The Mystery of Caketropolis older $9.99 94 95% 2.8k $28k (exactly $28,172) Afiq Suradi
Kaichu - The Kaiju Dating Sim older $9.99 87 88% 2.6k $26k (exactly $26,074) Squiddershins
Dragon Detective: A Friend from the Shadows $9.99 49 97% 1.5k $15k (exactly $14,685) Sungazer Software LLC
Dragon Audit older $9.99 44 97% 1.3k $13k (exactly $13,187) Archive Entertainment
The Tale of Doris and the Dragon - Episode 2 older $11.99 36 97% 1.1k $13k (exactly $12,949) Arrogant Pixel LTD
Specters of the Deep $11.99 34 91% 1.0k $12k (exactly $12,230) Choice of Games
Three Weeks On The Atlantic $4.99 33 96% 990 $4.9k (exactly $4,940) Crimson Dragon Studio
Party Quickie $4.99 15 86% 450 $2.2k (exactly $2,246) TheBigO Games
You Die Today $7.99 7 71% 210 $1.7k (exactly $1,678) Tabletale Games
Stronghold: Caverns of Sorcery $6.99 6 33% 180 $1.3k (exactly $1,258) Choice of Games
Professor mother-in-law begged me to get pregnant $9.99 3 33% 90 $899 (exactly $899) CHEN JIAWEI
Claire Darksage and the Accursed Objects Collector's Edition $12.99 1 100% 30 $390 (exactly $390) IKIGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.