Do I ship it?

Games › Idler › Idler + Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon Idler?

Idler + Dragons

Of 22 developers who shipped a Dragon Idler in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $24k, ×38 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 20 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 20 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Idler + Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $21k → $3.5k → $12k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Idler + Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $629 (exactly $629)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,796)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,860)
Top 5% $24k (exactly $24,161)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 46
Announced 20
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI
Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Idler; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Collectathon, Incremental
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 1,057 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $24k.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Idler with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds10 devs · median $36k · 10 announced
  2. + FarmingStrong odds33 devs · median $5.9k · 25 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashFair32 devs · median $6.4k · 50 announced
  4. + DrivingFair16 devs · median $5.5k · 18 announced
  5. + LootFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  6. + FPSFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  7. + Turn-Based CombatFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  8. + Turn-Based StrategyFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair16 devs · median $3.0k · 17 announced
  10. + Dark FantasyFair83 devs · median $2.9k · 128 announced
  11. + CapitalismFair205 devs · median $2.9k · 260 announced
  12. + SwordplayFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced

All 177 pairs on the Idler page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

XiuzhenWorld 2024 · $170k Loot Tycoon 2026 · EA · $114k Sons Of The Dream Forest 2023 · EA · $48k Kingdom of Lust 2024 · EA · $24k Dragon Forge 2022 · $22k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
XiuzhenWorld older $12.99 436 75% 13k $170k (exactly $169,909) Noforgetit
Loot Tycoon · EA $6.99 544 71% 16k $114k (exactly $114,077) Parallel Portal
Sons Of The Dream Forest · EA older $4.99 318 9% 9.5k $48k (exactly $47,605) SimulatorLife
Kingdom of Lust · EA $12.99 62 64% 1.9k $24k (exactly $24,161) Alienguy
Dragon Forge older $9.99 72 38% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,578) Legend Studio
Pet Lands $14.99 47 46% 1.4k $21k (exactly $21,136) Tbjbu2, Adria Martinez Exposito
Familiar Findings $5.99 94 96% 2.8k $17k (exactly $16,892) Cliffa Games
Abyss Horde $4.99 89 84% 2.7k $13k (exactly $13,323) Solo Gaming
AFKandia - Epoch of Idle $5.99 66 45% 2.0k $12k (exactly $11,860) Yang++ Game Studio
Knock on Fate：The Guardian Pusher $5.99 58 87% 1.7k $10k (exactly $10,423) 刚正面的红领巾
Now THAT'S a Big Dragon! $6.99 47 70% 1.4k $9.9k (exactly $9,856) Cotovelo Games
Open The Gate: Just A Little $5.99 37 75% 1.1k $6.6k (exactly $6,649) Abubu Dance
Dragon Sprouts $8.99 13 38% 390 $3.5k (exactly $3,506) Cozy Fox Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.