Do I ship it?

GamesTrading Card GameTrading Card Game + Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon Trading Card Game?

Trading Card Game + Dragons

Only 6 developers shipped a paid Dragon Trading Card Game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Ariokan™ - create your cards, break the Meta, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 5 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 22 more are announced, ×11 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $270 against a market of $630. 22 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 22 announced, ×11 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Trading Card Game + Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 6

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Trading Card Game + Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 6
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $270 (exactly $270)
Top 25% $299 (exactly $299)
Top 5% $16k (exactly $16,195)
Developers, 2 yr 6
Released games 29
Announced 22
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 52%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Trading Card Game
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Trading Card Game
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 923 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $270, 1 in 4 over $290, 1 in 20 over $16k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 22 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×11 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Trading Card Game with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  2. + SandboxFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  3. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $1.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Procedural GenerationPoor odds10 devs · median $10k · 26 announced
  5. + TradingPoor odds16 devs · median $10k · 36 announced
  6. + Life SimPoor odds18 devs · median $10k · 21 announced
  7. + CollectathonPoor odds26 devs · median $6.3k · 41 announced
  8. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $6.1k · 25 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds11 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  10. + Auto BattlerPoor odds22 devs · median $3.4k · 27 announced
  11. + Roguelike DeckbuilderPoor odds24 devs · median $3.4k · 38 announced
  12. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $3.1k · 36 announced

All 69 pairs on the Trading Card Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ruff Ghanor older $19.99 435 85% 13k $261k (exactly $260,869) DX Gameworks
Erannorth Chronicles older $20.99 407 85% 12k $256k (exactly $256,288) Spyridon Thalassinos
Ariokan™ - create your cards, break the Meta $29.99 18 94% 540 $16k (exactly $16,195) Fatum Games SL
Dice & Dungeons older $2.99 35 68% 1.1k $3.1k (exactly $3,140) Beni Games
Dragon Evo older $9.99 7 57% 210 $2.1k (exactly $2,098) Bromantic Games
Game of Dragons older $9.99 3 33% 90 $899 (exactly $899) 14Dimension Enterprise
Slide Furry Futanari older $1.99 13 69% 390 $776 (exactly $776) Black Hole
Dreamians: Card Battle $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) White Vortex Games
All-Front Assault $8.99 1 0% 30 $270 (exactly $270) Star Heart Workshop
Seblen: Battle! older $0.99 2 100% 60 $59 (exactly $59) Legible Solutions
Kingdoms of Age $0.99 1 0% 30 $30 (exactly $30) Rude Gnome Games
Paper Mages $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Gently Giant LLC
Warmongers · EA $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Good Game Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.