Do I ship it?

GamesMetroidvaniaMetroidvania + Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon Metroidvania?

Metroidvania + Dragons

Only 4 developers shipped a Dragon Metroidvania in the last 2 years. Over 4 years, 16 did: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced, ×12 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $1.8k against a market of $630. 23 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 23 announced, ×12 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Metroidvania + Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 4 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $120 → $1.6k → $3.9k → $1.8k
Outcomes for Metroidvania + Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 4 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Top 25% $3.9k (exactly $3,896)
Top 5% $23M (exactly $22,687,421)
Developers, 4 yr 16
Released games 26
Announced 23
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Metroidvania
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 4 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 75,258 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 4 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $3.8k, 1 in 20 over $22M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 23 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×12 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Metroidvania with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ParkourPoor odds8 devs · median $80k · 40 announced
  2. + Online Co-OpPoor odds12 devs · median $74k · 15 announced
  3. + CraftingPoor odds10 devs · median $34k · 61 announced
  4. + SimulationPoor odds16 devs · median $32k · 35 announced
  5. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $28k · 29 announced
  6. + CollectathonPoor odds30 devs · median $16k · 78 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 33 announced
  8. + Survival HorrorPoor odds14 devs · median $14k · 46 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds102 devs · median $14k · 335 announced
  10. + VampiresPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 29 announced
  11. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds12 devs · median $14k · 42 announced
  12. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 37 announced

All 90 pairs on the Metroidvania page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ENDER LILIES: Quietus of the Knights older $24.99 43,092 93% 1.3M $32M (exactly $32,306,072) Live Wire, Adglobe
ASTLIBRA Revision older $24.99 30,262 95% 908k $23M (exactly $22,687,421) KEIZO
Bō: Path of the Teal Lotus older $19.99 1,398 82% 42k $838k (exactly $838,381) Squid Shock Studios, Christopher Stair,… (Squid Shock Studios, Christopher Stair, Trevor Youngquist)
Beholgar older $8.99 343 76% 10k $93k (exactly $92,507) Serkan Bakar
Adventure of Samsara $19.99 66 89% 2.0k $40k (exactly $39,580) Ilex Games
Draco Knight older $14.99 18 83% 540 $8.1k (exactly $8,095) TeamHen
Mythic Dungeons older $8.99 29 34% 870 $7.8k (exactly $7,821) Eurus Game Studio
Insect Adventure older $9.99 24 83% 720 $7.2k (exactly $7,193) MAYO-FORCE LLC
Legends of Dionysos older $9.99 13 76% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) TheGamingVan
VonGarland Castle : Sacrilege of the Night older $9.99 13 53% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Ash Jackson
Duil $11.99 5 80% 150 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) JL studio
STEAM TRIGGER $14.99 1 0% 30 $450 (exactly $450) x-climb Inc.
INFEROS NUMINE : descent into darkness $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) 2.5D Gaming Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.