Do I ship it?

GamesPuzzlePuzzle + Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon Puzzle game?

Puzzle + Dragons

Of 38 developers who shipped a Dragon Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 57 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $77k, ×124 the market median. Revenue is up 185% on the market; 57 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 185% on the market, 57 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle + Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 38
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.4k → $839 → $179 → $1.1k → $809 → $2.3k → $4.1k (still earning) → $90 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Puzzle + Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 38
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,317)
Top 25% $3.4k (exactly $3,358)
Top 5% $78k (exactly $77,678)
Developers, 2 yr 38
Released games 141
Announced 57
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 185% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Puzzle; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Action
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 966 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $3.3k, 1 in 20 over $77k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. Nearly all of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 57 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Puzzle with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair57 devs · median $8.2k · 53 announced
  2. + Medical SimFair17 devs · median $6.1k · 27 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair40 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair161 devs · median $1.8k · 150 announced
  5. + VampiresFair46 devs · median $1.7k · 37 announced
  6. + CatsFair281 devs · median $1.2k · 334 announced
  7. + DemonsFair233 devs · median $1.2k · 248 announced
  8. + God GameFair27 devs · median $1.2k · 30 announced
  9. + RomanceFair209 devs · median $1.0k · 251 announced
  10. + AutomationFair135 devs · median $1.0k · 164 announced
  11. + Tower DefenseFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 67 announced
  12. + LemmingsFair13 devs · median $959 · 11 announced

All 246 pairs on the Puzzle page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Word Game older $34.99 5,930 93% 178k $6.2M (exactly $6,224,721) Team9
Storyteller older $14.99 8,169 88% 245k $3.7M (exactly $3,673,599) Daniel Benmergui
Hammerwatch II older $24.99 1,871 60% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,402,689) Crackshell
Amerzone - The Explorer's Legacy $39.99 526 90% 16k $631k (exactly $631,042) Microids Studio Paris
Toren older $9.99 954 64% 29k $286k (exactly $285,914) Swordtales
Golf Around! older $9.99 823 94% 25k $247k (exactly $246,653) Hough Studio
Sex and the Furry Titty older $6.99 996 90% 30k $209k (exactly $208,861) Furlough Games
DreamWorks Dragons: Dawn of New Riders older $29.99 158 90% 4.7k $142k (exactly $142,153) Climax Studios Ltd.
Dungeon Of Dragon Knight older $11.99 315 74% 9.5k $113k (exactly $113,306) HexGameStudio
文字遊戯(日本語版) $34.99 74 90% 2.2k $78k (exactly $77,678) Team9, ESQUADRA,inc.
Ultimate Drummer $5.99 170 98% 5.1k $31k (exactly $30,549) Cool 3D World
Spellbound Beauties $6.99 72 83% 2.2k $15k (exactly $15,098) Lunar Kiss Games
Rune Ark $6.99 29 65% 870 $6.1k (exactly $6,081) WelesGames
DungeonSweeper $7.99 21 76% 630 $5.0k (exactly $5,034) Smoketree Studios
Katana Dragon $9.99 16 81% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) Tsunoa Games
Scale Mail $3.99 34 100% 1.0k $4.1k (exactly $4,070) Jam Jar Game Studio
Spire Blast $6.99 17 100% 510 $3.6k (exactly $3,565) Orbital Knight
One more gem $15.99 7 100% 210 $3.4k (exactly $3,358) Cosmin Munteanu

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.