Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Deckbuilding

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Deckbuilding?

Deckbuilding

Of 1,553 developers who shipped a Deckbuilding in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 2,927 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×3.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $340k, ×728 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 2,927 games are announced against 1,038 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 2,927 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Deckbuilding
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,553
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.4k → $5.5k → $5.1k → $5.1k → $3.0k → $3.5k → $1.3k (still earning) → $450 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Deckbuilding: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,553
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,679)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $18,345)
Top 5% $346k (exactly $345,755)
Developers, 2 yr 1,553
Released games 2,937
Announced 2,927
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Deckbuilding
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 70% positive over 315,197 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $340k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 641 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 2,927 games are announced against 1,038 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Deckbuilding

39 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Deckbuilding + Lovecraftian Poor odds $72k 19 devs
  2. Deckbuilding + Romance Poor odds $25k 15 devs
  3. Deckbuilding + Gothic Poor odds $15k 18 devs
  4. Deckbuilding + Psychological Horror Poor odds $14k 35 devs
  5. Deckbuilding + LGBTQ+ Poor odds $10k 18 devs
  6. Deckbuilding + Female Protagonist Poor odds $7.8k 96 devs
  7. Deckbuilding + Historical Poor odds $5.9k 48 devs
  8. Deckbuilding + Supernatural Poor odds $4.9k 21 devs
  9. Deckbuilding + War Poor odds $4.8k 26 devs
  10. Deckbuilding + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $4.8k 31 devs
  11. Deckbuilding + Martial Arts Poor odds $4.7k 24 devs
  12. Deckbuilding + Alternate History Poor odds $4.5k 13 devs
  13. Deckbuilding + Underground Poor odds $3.8k 14 devs
  14. Deckbuilding + Dragons Poor odds $3.7k 21 devs
  15. Deckbuilding + Cats Poor odds $3.6k 31 devs
  16. Deckbuilding + Zombies Poor odds $3.5k 16 devs
  17. Deckbuilding + Capitalism Poor odds $3.3k 32 devs
  18. Deckbuilding + Dystopian Poor odds $3.0k 25 devs
  19. Deckbuilding + Psychological Poor odds $3.0k 19 devs
  20. Deckbuilding + Military Poor odds $3.0k 17 devs
  21. Deckbuilding + Horror Poor odds $2.7k 66 devs
  22. Deckbuilding + Artificial Intelligence Poor odds $2.5k 24 devs
  23. Deckbuilding + Pirates Poor odds $2.3k 12 devs
  24. Deckbuilding + Aliens Poor odds $2.2k 30 devs
  25. Deckbuilding + Mythology Poor odds $2.2k 52 devs
  26. Deckbuilding + Futuristic Poor odds $1.9k 55 devs
  27. Deckbuilding + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.8k 136 devs
  28. Deckbuilding + Steampunk Poor odds $1.8k 14 devs
  29. Deckbuilding + Robots Poor odds $1.7k 19 devs
  30. Deckbuilding + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $1.7k 167 devs
  31. Deckbuilding + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.7k 55 devs
  32. Deckbuilding + Fantasy Poor odds $1.6k 543 devs
  33. Deckbuilding + Medieval Poor odds $1.6k 149 devs
  34. Deckbuilding + Magic Poor odds $1.5k 196 devs
  35. Deckbuilding + Space Poor odds $1.4k 48 devs
  36. Deckbuilding + Demons Poor odds $1.3k 39 devs
  37. Deckbuilding + Modern Poor odds $1.2k 26 devs
  38. Deckbuilding + Mystery Poor odds $1.1k 46 devs
  39. Deckbuilding + Nature Poor odds $599 44 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Slay the Spire 2019 · $144M Slay the Spire 2 2026 · EA · $138M Inscryption 2021 · $81M Balatro 2024 · $72M Broken Arrow 2025 · $39M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Slay the Spire older $24.99 191,765 97% 5.8M $144M (exactly $143,766,220) Mega Crit
Slay the Spire 2 · EA $24.99 183,764 61% 5.5M $138M (exactly $137,767,871) Mega Crit
Inscryption older $19.99 135,017 96% 4.1M $81M (exactly $80,969,695) Daniel Mullins Games
Balatro older $14.99 160,715 97% 4.8M $72M (exactly $72,273,536) LocalThunk
Broken Arrow $49.99 25,924 55% 778k $39M (exactly $38,878,223) Steel Balalaika
Library Of Ruina older $29.99 40,605 94% 1.2M $37M (exactly $36,532,318) ProjectMoon
Marvel's Midnight Suns older $59.99 17,060 82% 512k $31M (exactly $30,702,882) Firaxis Games
INAZUMA ELEVEN: Victory Road $69.99 11,180 88% 335k $23M (exactly $23,474,646) LEVEL5 Inc.
暖雪 Warm Snow older $17.99 35,270 92% 1.1M $19M (exactly $19,035,219) BadMudStudio
Loop Hero older $14.99 33,816 92% 1.0M $15M (exactly $15,207,055) Four Quarters
9 Kings · EA $19.99 21,352 92% 641k $13M (exactly $12,804,794) Sad Socket
The Bazaar $19.99 14,931 70% 448k $9.0M (exactly $8,954,121) Tempo
Magicraft $15.99 15,051 92% 452k $7.2M (exactly $7,219,965) Wave Games
Monster Train 2 $24.99 8,647 95% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) Shiny Shoe
Vampire Crawlers: The Turbo Wildcard from Vampire Survivors $9.99 18,587 96% 558k $5.6M (exactly $5,570,524) poncle, Nosebleed Interactive
The Matchless Kungfu $19.99 6,755 79% 203k $4.1M (exactly $4,050,973) HuanMos Game
The King is Watching $14.99 9,006 88% 270k $4.0M (exactly $4,049,998) Hypnohead

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.