Do I ship it?

GamesDeckbuildingDeckbuilding + War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a War Deckbuilding?

Deckbuilding + War

Of 26 developers who shipped a War Deckbuilding in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 71 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×7.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×1606 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 71 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 71 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Deckbuilding + War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 26
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.4k → $1.3k → $27k → $320k → $1.6k (still earning) → $4.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Deckbuilding + War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 26
Bottom 30% $629 (exactly $629)
Median $4.8k (exactly $4,844)
Top 25% $26k (exactly $26,083)
Top 5% $1.0M (exactly $1,008,599)
Developers, 2 yr 26
Released games 70
Announced 71
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 170% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 29%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic
War
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Deckbuilding; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Card Game, Auto Battler
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 60% positive over 31,774 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $4.8k, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 6 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 71 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Deckbuilding with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair44 devs · median $2.8k · 51 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair98 devs · median $2.5k · 137 announced
  3. + ArcadeFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  4. + 2D FighterFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Party GameFair22 devs · median $719 · 30 announced
  6. + SwordplayFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  7. + Point & ClickFair34 devs · median $598 · 36 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair53 devs · median $537 · 79 announced
  9. + LogicFair84 devs · median $419 · 118 announced
  10. + LovecraftianPoor odds19 devs · median $72k · 56 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $30k · 31 announced
  12. + Visual NovelPoor odds36 devs · median $26k · 64 announced

All 141 pairs on the Deckbuilding page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Broken Arrow $49.99 25,924 55% 778k $39M (exactly $38,878,223) Steel Balalaika
Commander Quest $11.99 2,804 74% 84k $1.0M (exactly $1,008,599) Flyway Games, Inc.
Hexarchy older $19.99 1,231 83% 37k $738k (exactly $738,231) Main Tank Software
FrostBound $14.99 1,196 82% 36k $538k (exactly $537,841) Lyra Studio
Warriors of the Nile 2 older $14.99 1,180 88% 35k $531k (exactly $530,646) Stove Studio
HEART of CROWN Online $29.99 412 84% 12k $371k (exactly $370,676) illuCalab, FLIPFLOPs, quziralab.
There Are No Orcs $8.99 1,188 93% 36k $320k (exactly $320,404) BaseTrade Studio
长明火计划 Project: Eternal Flame older $19.99 77 88% 2.3k $46k (exactly $46,177) 唐扬Studio
Vestiges: Fallen Tribes $24.99 36 80% 1.1k $27k (exactly $26,989) WanadevStudio
Flaregate Network $14.99 58 77% 1.7k $26k (exactly $26,083) Keycard Studio, LLC
Tuggowar $7.99 103 91% 3.1k $25k (exactly $24,689) Tension Games
One King Is Enough $10.99 27 77% 810 $8.9k (exactly $8,902) INVISIBLE GAMES
Paws and Whiskers $8.99 26 76% 780 $7.0k (exactly $7,012) JohnHang

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.