Do I ship it?

GamesDeckbuildingDeckbuilding + Space

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Deckbuilding?

Deckbuilding + Space

Of 48 developers who shipped a Space Deckbuilding in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 105 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×2.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×182 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 105 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 105 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Deckbuilding + Space
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 48
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $87k → $1.9k → $32k → $959 → $30k → $4.8k → $719 (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Deckbuilding + Space: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 48
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,439)
Top 25% $30k (exactly $29,680)
Top 5% $114k (exactly $114,286)
Developers, 2 yr 48
Released games 99
Announced 105
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic
Space
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Deckbuilding; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelite, Card Battler
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 3,382 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $29k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 6 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 105 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Deckbuilding with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair44 devs · median $2.8k · 51 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair98 devs · median $2.5k · 137 announced
  3. + ArcadeFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  4. + 2D FighterFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Party GameFair22 devs · median $719 · 30 announced
  6. + SwordplayFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  7. + Point & ClickFair34 devs · median $598 · 36 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair53 devs · median $537 · 79 announced
  9. + LogicFair84 devs · median $419 · 118 announced
  10. + LovecraftianPoor odds19 devs · median $72k · 56 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $30k · 31 announced
  12. + Visual NovelPoor odds36 devs · median $26k · 64 announced

All 141 pairs on the Deckbuilding page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dune: Imperium older $22.99 3,806 94% 114k $2.6M (exactly $2,624,998) Dire Wolf
Cobalt Core older $19.99 4,067 95% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,438,980) Rocket Rat Games
Deep Sky Derelicts older $19.99 1,985 73% 60k $1.2M (exactly $1,190,404) Snowhound Games
Moonbreaker older $29.99 1,289 84% 39k $1.2M (exactly $1,159,713) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Mega Man Star Force Legacy Collection $39.99 657 96% 20k $788k (exactly $788,203) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Tower Tactics: Liberation older $19.99 1,224 88% 37k $734k (exactly $734,033) asraworks
Down with the Ship · EA $14.99 817 93% 25k $367k (exactly $367,405) Iron Anchor Games
Zet Zillions older $9.99 722 87% 22k $216k (exactly $216,383) OTA IMON Studios
For The Warp older $14.99 434 72% 13k $195k (exactly $195,170) Massive Galaxy Studios
Kitchen Crisis older $14.99 311 74% 9.3k $140k (exactly $139,857) Team Samoyed
SHOOPER NOVA $6.99 545 83% 16k $114k (exactly $114,286) Jamesika
Mineral Defense $14.99 220 90% 6.6k $99k (exactly $98,934) Corestone Games
Star Survivor $4.99 540 67% 16k $81k (exactly $80,838) SpaceOwl Games, Erabit
Stellar Orphans $16.99 139 71% 4.2k $71k (exactly $70,848) Artifex Parvus
Clonizer $14.99 146 82% 4.4k $66k (exactly $65,656) Juicy Plume
Hyperspace Deck Command $19.99 91 95% 2.7k $55k (exactly $54,573) Sleeper Games
ACE Strategy: Mecha Nova $14.99 115 78% 3.5k $52k (exactly $51,716) EMINA STUDIO
Takara Cards $14.99 112 83% 3.4k $50k (exactly $50,366) Post Mortem Pixels

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.