Do I ship it?

GamesDeckbuildingDeckbuilding + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Deckbuilding?

Deckbuilding + Sci-fi

Of 136 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Deckbuilding in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 235 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×3.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $210k, ×457 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 235 games are announced against 91 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 235 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Deckbuilding + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 136
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $64k → $95k → $21k → $1.2k → $3.1k → $2.5k → $719 (still earning) → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Deckbuilding + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 136
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $19,760)
Top 5% $217k (exactly $217,249)
Developers, 2 yr 136
Released games 274
Announced 235
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Deckbuilding; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Card Game, Card Battler
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 22,146 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $210k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 7 in 10 of the 58 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 235 games are announced against 91 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Deckbuilding with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair44 devs · median $2.8k · 51 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair98 devs · median $2.5k · 137 announced
  3. + ArcadeFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  4. + 2D FighterFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Party GameFair22 devs · median $719 · 30 announced
  6. + SwordplayFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  7. + Point & ClickFair34 devs · median $598 · 36 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair53 devs · median $537 · 79 announced
  9. + LogicFair84 devs · median $419 · 118 announced
  10. + LovecraftianPoor odds19 devs · median $72k · 56 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $30k · 31 announced
  12. + Visual NovelPoor odds36 devs · median $26k · 64 announced

All 141 pairs on the Deckbuilding page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Bazaar $19.99 14,931 70% 448k $9.0M (exactly $8,954,121) Tempo
Griftlands older $19.99 13,440 93% 403k $8.1M (exactly $8,059,968) Klei Entertainment
I Was a Teenage Exocolonist older $24.99 4,443 96% 133k $3.3M (exactly $3,330,917) Northway Games
Dune: Imperium older $22.99 3,806 94% 114k $2.6M (exactly $2,624,998) Dire Wolf
Cobalt Core older $19.99 4,067 95% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,438,980) Rocket Rat Games
NEOVERSE older $19.99 2,882 84% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,728,335) Tinogames Inc.
Mega Man Battle Network Legacy Collection Vol. 1 older $39.99 1,290 87% 39k $1.5M (exactly $1,547,613) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Deep Sky Derelicts older $19.99 1,985 73% 60k $1.2M (exactly $1,190,404) Snowhound Games
Moonbreaker older $29.99 1,289 84% 39k $1.2M (exactly $1,159,713) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
In Falsus $39.99 788 89% 24k $945k (exactly $945,364) lowiro
Mega Man Star Force Legacy Collection $39.99 657 96% 20k $788k (exactly $788,203) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Rogue Command $19.99 1,018 89% 31k $610k (exactly $610,495) feneq
Down with the Ship · EA $14.99 817 93% 25k $367k (exactly $367,405) Iron Anchor Games
One Turn Kill $7.99 1,478 95% 44k $354k (exactly $354,277) DenDen
Villages & Dungeons $6.99 1,036 91% 31k $217k (exactly $217,249) CaCaFrog Studio
Battle Suit Aces $19.99 347 90% 10k $208k (exactly $208,096) Trinket Studios
Bioweaver $6.99 668 77% 20k $140k (exactly $140,080) Emprom Game, Wild Kid Games
Archons $9.99 406 92% 12k $122k (exactly $121,678) BulletHell Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.