Do I ship it?

GamesDeckbuildingDeckbuilding + Psychological

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological Deckbuilding?

Deckbuilding + Psychological

Only 19 developers shipped a Psychological Deckbuilding in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Death Howl, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 48 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×6.3 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $780k, ×1643 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 48 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.3 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 48 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Deckbuilding + Psychological
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $81k → $598 (still earning) → $600 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Deckbuilding + Psychological: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $538 (exactly $538)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $24,575)
Top 5% $780k (exactly $780,210)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 28
Announced 48
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 750% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic
Psychological
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Deckbuilding; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Card Game, Adventure, Roguelite
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Dark, Difficult
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 1,862 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $24k, 1 in 20 over $780k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 48 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Deckbuilding with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair44 devs · median $2.8k · 51 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair98 devs · median $2.5k · 137 announced
  3. + ArcadeFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  4. + 2D FighterFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Party GameFair22 devs · median $719 · 30 announced
  6. + SwordplayFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  7. + Point & ClickFair34 devs · median $598 · 36 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair53 devs · median $537 · 79 announced
  9. + LogicFair84 devs · median $419 · 118 announced
  10. + LovecraftianPoor odds19 devs · median $72k · 56 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $30k · 31 announced
  12. + Visual NovelPoor odds36 devs · median $26k · 64 announced

All 141 pairs on the Deckbuilding page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Inscryption older $19.99 135,017 96% 4.1M $81M (exactly $80,969,695) Daniel Mullins Games
Death Howl $19.99 1,301 92% 39k $780k (exactly $780,210) The Outer Zone
Sanatorium - A Mental Asylum Simulator $12.99 208 59% 6.2k $81k (exactly $81,058) Zeitglas
Photogenic Minds : Identity older $19.99 89 88% 2.7k $53k (exactly $53,373) 727 Not Hound
Dice Tavern: Farkle Roguelike $9.99 112 90% 3.4k $34k (exactly $33,566) Cavi Studio
The Killing Stone · EA $12.99 79 94% 2.4k $31k (exactly $30,786) Question
Dreamcards $9.99 82 98% 2.5k $25k (exactly $24,575) Soneka Games
Hodgepodge Hunch older $4.99 140 93% 4.2k $21k (exactly $20,958) uracon
The Detective Reaper Invites older $9.99 58 37% 1.7k $17k (exactly $17,383) SHIZU KANO UMI
Card Detective older $3.99 145 73% 4.4k $17k (exactly $17,356) 神探饭店制作组
Grit Shot $6.99 29 75% 870 $6.1k (exactly $6,081) nithic
Muffles' Life Sentence $11.99 12 100% 360 $4.3k (exactly $4,316) BossyPino
Roulette Heist $6.99 18 94% 540 $3.8k (exactly $3,775) DreamArk Lab
LYMBUS $9.99 11 90% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Happy Accident Studios
Grimslair $9.99 10 100% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) ThunderRam Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.