Do I ship it?

GamesDeckbuildingDeckbuilding + Military

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Military Deckbuilding?

Deckbuilding + Military

Only 17 developers shipped a Military Deckbuilding in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Broken Arrow, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $38M, ×61908 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 24 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 24 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Deckbuilding + Military
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.5k → $25k → $629 (still earning) → $4.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Deckbuilding + Military: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,992)
Top 25% $26k (exactly $25,793)
Top 5% $39M (exactly $38,878,223)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 34
Announced 24
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic
Military
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Deckbuilding; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Tactical, Card Game
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 57% positive over 28,336 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $25k, 1 in 20 over $38M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 6 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Deckbuilding with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair44 devs · median $2.8k · 51 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair98 devs · median $2.5k · 137 announced
  3. + ArcadeFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  4. + 2D FighterFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Party GameFair22 devs · median $719 · 30 announced
  6. + SwordplayFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  7. + Point & ClickFair34 devs · median $598 · 36 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair53 devs · median $537 · 79 announced
  9. + LogicFair84 devs · median $419 · 118 announced
  10. + LovecraftianPoor odds19 devs · median $72k · 56 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $30k · 31 announced
  12. + Visual NovelPoor odds36 devs · median $26k · 64 announced

All 141 pairs on the Deckbuilding page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Broken Arrow $49.99 25,924 55% 778k $39M (exactly $38,878,223) Steel Balalaika
Dune: Imperium older $22.99 3,806 94% 114k $2.6M (exactly $2,624,998) Dire Wolf
Hexarchy older $19.99 1,231 83% 37k $738k (exactly $738,231) Main Tank Software
Knights in Tight Spaces $19.99 831 69% 25k $498k (exactly $498,351) Ground Shatter
Heart of Crown PC older $24.99 528 80% 16k $396k (exactly $395,842) illuCalab, FLIPFLOPs, Japanime Digital
There Are No Orcs $8.99 1,188 93% 36k $320k (exactly $320,404) BaseTrade Studio
Flaregate Network $14.99 58 77% 1.7k $26k (exactly $26,083) Keycard Studio, LLC
Spinera $6.99 123 77% 3.7k $26k (exactly $25,793) Arvis Games
Tuggowar $7.99 103 91% 3.1k $25k (exactly $24,689) Tension Games
Armor Clash 2022 [RTS] older $9.99 34 44% 1.0k $10k (exactly $10,190) Windforce
ModernFire · EA $9.99 21 90% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) FireLineGames
MoeArmy vs SuArmy $2.99 54 83% 1.6k $4.8k (exactly $4,844) KumiLGames
Bound Survivor $3.99 25 76% 750 $3.0k (exactly $2,992) Gorilla Sip
Ship of the line · EA $7.99 9 88% 270 $2.2k (exactly $2,157) YDS

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.